NBA Lottery Preview
By Jordan Rappaport
Given the statistical outputs as expected by the mathematicians and their fancy division and probability, and in an effort to not provide readers with yet another incorrect mock draft, I will provide the first ever “Mock Lottery Order.” All outputs of the below 2012 Mock Lottery have been baked in logic and reasoning, and will surely be correct when June 28th, 2012 arrives.
First, for all those stats gurus out there who are interested in knowing why all the mock drafts are showing the same ridiculous top 3 order, here is the explanation, from mynbadraft.com:
Now that we got all of
the boring stuff out of the way, let me tell how you the actual NBA
draft will go. You can throw your ping pong balls out, or use them for
your respective adolescent weekend extracurricular activities, because
they are no use here. There is a greater power at work when it comes to
the NBA lottery, and that force comes from a mixture of 3 elements;
henceforth known as ‘The Elements’ :
There have been clear
examples of this throughout the lottery’s history. These factors have
combined to create the best NBA product in years, purely through the
positioning of great players in their proper locations on draft day.
This in NO WAY includes Patrick Aloysius Ewing Sr. going to the Knicks
#1 in 1985 during the first ever Draft Lottery, so please do not mention
that as a possibility. That year was pure odds and luck. (Spoken as a
true Knicks fan).
A few examples of each of ‘The Elements’ as used over the years:
Sadistic Humor:
1996 NBA Draft - the Clippers had at 15% chance of winning the lottery. The rightful 3 worst records secured spots, ensuring that the Clippers would fall to the 7th pick. Just out of reach of the top 6 picks-Iverson, Camby, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Marbury, Ray Allen, Antoine Walker. All all-stars and/or NBA All First-Teamers, outside of Camby. The Clippers went on to draft Lorenzen Wright, the center out of Memphis, who had a tragically mediocre NBA career and even more tragic disappearance in 2010.
2007 Draft- The League saw how well-received Portland’s 2nd pick in 1984 of a highly touted 7’1 Center, while passing on eventual mult-year scoring champion went, and felt the need to duplicate he pain felt by the Pacific Northwest once again in 2007. Now it is unfair to compare Kevin Durant (2nd pick 2007) to Michael Jordan (3rd pick 1984), but every Trailblazers fan would take KD over their lottery-pick Greg Oden in 2007, who has been riddles with numerous knee injuries and never lived up to the hype that had built up through 3 state championships at Lawrence North High School in Indianapolis and NCAA Finals appearance at OSU. The most humorous part of this draft Element is that Portland had only a 5.3% chance of winning the #1 pick that year. Had they fallen to their expected #6 spot, they would have had an opportunity to draft any of the following: Danilo Gallinari, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert. Far from superstars, but much more reliable contributors to their teams today than GO.
Corruption:
1998 NBA Draft- The Clippers at a long shot of 22.56% of winning the Draft’s coveted #1 spot, come away with the top pick, guaranteeing the availability of a standout 7-footer of Nigerian descent who spent his collegiate years at Pacific. Olowokandi, a product of the “Potential” hype machine, was picked in front of Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Tractor Traylor (RIP), and Al “I get buckets” Harrington. The NBA had clear plans for the Clippers, and they made sure the depths of this organization ran low as the other LA organization built a dynasty in the Staples Center.
2008 NBA Draft- The Chicago Bulls sat at the 9th worst record in the league, with only a 1.7% chance of winning the lottery, with 2 coveted prospects coming out of college that year in Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley. Now many would argue that the Chicago had enough success during the Michael Jordan glory years of the 90’s, including us Knicks fans who lost out on what could have been a glorious period for our franchise, but I digress. The Bulls end up securing the #1 pick, take a franchise-changing PG in D-Rose, and have come away with the East’s top record for 2011 and 2012. I’m guessing another lottery win will follow after 5 or 6 championships have been won by the Windy City. The 9th pick that year ended up being DJ Augstin out of Texas, good, but not quite Rose.
Karma:
1999 NBA Draft- The Charlotte Hornets had the lowest odds of any team in the draft lottery, at 1.83% of getting a top 3 pick, and only 0.73% odds of a #3 pick. Naturally the basketball gods were looking out for the eventually-relocated-and-league-owned Hornets as they had suffered previous playoffs ousts to the New York and Chicago powerhouse teams of the late 90’s. Winning the lottery allowed them to grab the dynamic point guard out of UCLA, Baron Davis, instead of the 13th overall pick that year in Aleksandar Radojevic. Charlotte’s inability to put this karma to good use led to a string of poor performances and eventual move to New Orleans.
2009 NBA Draft- After years of demise, and the Los Angeles Lakers dynastic years of Kobe’s prime falling by the wayside, the NBA needed to make sure that this major market had some major players, and a marketable superstar to ensure greatness. The 2009 draft pegged the Clippers at 17% to grab the #1 pick that year, with the league’s 3rd worst record. The previously humorous flops of this franchise could not be allowed with a #2 lottery pick (Hasheem Thabeet), and so the Clippers went on to grab Blake Griffin and turn the Red, White, and Blue tenants of the Staples Center into a Western Conference powerhouse. I’d say this draft lottery fell into a hybrid of Karma and Corruption, but I felt it was better to put a positive spin on Lob-City.
2012 Lottery Picks
Now that you are well-versed in how the NBA draft Lottery “works” you should be confident in my abilities to pick the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery winners for 2012:
#1: Portland Trailblazers, 0.8% chance. A 7-foot center with game-changing capabilities coming off of an NCAA Championship appearance and touted as all-world could only be placed on the Blazers (Clippers are lucky they aren’t in this one). I will make no guarantees of Anthony Davis’s future health or success in the league, but there is a mighty long track record of momentum going against the big man out of Kentucky. Best of luck, and ice those knees son. Elements: Sadistic Humor
#2: Cleveland Cavs, 13.7% chance. Winning the draft lottery in 2011 was a start (most likely due to corruption, perfectly timed after LBJ’s departure, but we have since passed that section of this article and will move on). This franchise has been through some rough years with both an unfulfilled promise of Lebron’s 7 years, as well as some really awful weather to deal with on Cleveland. Not to mention that it is the most unsuccessful sports city in America. The Cavs will win the #2 spot, but will assign Dan Gilbert’s son to write-in their pick on draft day. Nick Gilbert, in an effort to follow up last year’s draft-day swag, will use short hand and write in “T-Ro” for #2 pick. NBA understandably agrees and grants them Terrance Ross, SG, Washington instead of Thomas Robinson. Elements: Sadistic Humor, Karma, Corruption
#3: Charlotte Bobcats, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick. With the top odds to receive the #1 overall pick, and almost certain odds to receive either of the highly touted AP All-Americans of Davis or Robinson, the Bobcats are stuck just out of reach, at #3. Michael Jordan’s legacy as an owner will continue to be judged, with no help from the lottery. When asked for their pick, the Bobcats reps scream out in anger “That’s just Heartless!” and are promptly rewarded Moe Harkless, SF St. Johns. (Alternate ending #1: Bobcats reps scream out “We need More than this!” and receive Ramone Moore, sg, Temple) (Alternate ending #2: In a lucky turn of events they yell out “You gotta be Kidding me!” and receive Michael Kidd-Gilchrist….. yea sounds like a long shot to me too).
Given the statistical outputs as expected by the mathematicians and their fancy division and probability, and in an effort to not provide readers with yet another incorrect mock draft, I will provide the first ever “Mock Lottery Order.” All outputs of the below 2012 Mock Lottery have been baked in logic and reasoning, and will surely be correct when June 28th, 2012 arrives.
First, for all those stats gurus out there who are interested in knowing why all the mock drafts are showing the same ridiculous top 3 order, here is the explanation, from mynbadraft.com:
“Odds of winning the
2012 NBA Draft Lottery are listed below. Team rankings based on
standings as of the end of the regular season. The draft lottery drawing
only determines the top 3 positions, the remaining 4-14 picks are the
inverse order of the final standing for the non-playoff teams.”
That leaves the following lottery odds as follows
1. Charlotte Bobcats - 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. Washington Wizards - 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. New Orleans Hornets - 138 combinations, 13.8% chance
4. Cleveland Cavaliers - 137 combinations, 13.7% chance
5. Portland Trail Blazers (via NJ) - 76 combinations, 7.6% chance
6. Sacramento Kings - 75 combinations, 7.5% chance
7. Toronto Raptors - 36 combinations, 3.6% chance
8. Utah Jazz (via GS) - 35 combinations, 3.5% chance
9. Detroit Pistons - 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Min) - 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. Portland Trail Blazers - 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. Milwaukee Bucks - 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. Phoenix Suns - 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. Houston Rockets - 5 combinations, 0.5% chance
1. Charlotte Bobcats - 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. Washington Wizards - 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. New Orleans Hornets - 138 combinations, 13.8% chance
4. Cleveland Cavaliers - 137 combinations, 13.7% chance
5. Portland Trail Blazers (via NJ) - 76 combinations, 7.6% chance
6. Sacramento Kings - 75 combinations, 7.5% chance
7. Toronto Raptors - 36 combinations, 3.6% chance
8. Utah Jazz (via GS) - 35 combinations, 3.5% chance
9. Detroit Pistons - 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Min) - 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. Portland Trail Blazers - 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. Milwaukee Bucks - 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. Phoenix Suns - 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. Houston Rockets - 5 combinations, 0.5% chance
1) Sadistic Humor
2) Corruption
3) Karma
A few examples of each of ‘The Elements’ as used over the years:
Sadistic Humor:
1996 NBA Draft - the Clippers had at 15% chance of winning the lottery. The rightful 3 worst records secured spots, ensuring that the Clippers would fall to the 7th pick. Just out of reach of the top 6 picks-Iverson, Camby, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Marbury, Ray Allen, Antoine Walker. All all-stars and/or NBA All First-Teamers, outside of Camby. The Clippers went on to draft Lorenzen Wright, the center out of Memphis, who had a tragically mediocre NBA career and even more tragic disappearance in 2010.
2007 Draft- The League saw how well-received Portland’s 2nd pick in 1984 of a highly touted 7’1 Center, while passing on eventual mult-year scoring champion went, and felt the need to duplicate he pain felt by the Pacific Northwest once again in 2007. Now it is unfair to compare Kevin Durant (2nd pick 2007) to Michael Jordan (3rd pick 1984), but every Trailblazers fan would take KD over their lottery-pick Greg Oden in 2007, who has been riddles with numerous knee injuries and never lived up to the hype that had built up through 3 state championships at Lawrence North High School in Indianapolis and NCAA Finals appearance at OSU. The most humorous part of this draft Element is that Portland had only a 5.3% chance of winning the #1 pick that year. Had they fallen to their expected #6 spot, they would have had an opportunity to draft any of the following: Danilo Gallinari, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert. Far from superstars, but much more reliable contributors to their teams today than GO.
Corruption:
1998 NBA Draft- The Clippers at a long shot of 22.56% of winning the Draft’s coveted #1 spot, come away with the top pick, guaranteeing the availability of a standout 7-footer of Nigerian descent who spent his collegiate years at Pacific. Olowokandi, a product of the “Potential” hype machine, was picked in front of Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Tractor Traylor (RIP), and Al “I get buckets” Harrington. The NBA had clear plans for the Clippers, and they made sure the depths of this organization ran low as the other LA organization built a dynasty in the Staples Center.
2008 NBA Draft- The Chicago Bulls sat at the 9th worst record in the league, with only a 1.7% chance of winning the lottery, with 2 coveted prospects coming out of college that year in Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley. Now many would argue that the Chicago had enough success during the Michael Jordan glory years of the 90’s, including us Knicks fans who lost out on what could have been a glorious period for our franchise, but I digress. The Bulls end up securing the #1 pick, take a franchise-changing PG in D-Rose, and have come away with the East’s top record for 2011 and 2012. I’m guessing another lottery win will follow after 5 or 6 championships have been won by the Windy City. The 9th pick that year ended up being DJ Augstin out of Texas, good, but not quite Rose.
Karma:
1999 NBA Draft- The Charlotte Hornets had the lowest odds of any team in the draft lottery, at 1.83% of getting a top 3 pick, and only 0.73% odds of a #3 pick. Naturally the basketball gods were looking out for the eventually-relocated-and-league-owned Hornets as they had suffered previous playoffs ousts to the New York and Chicago powerhouse teams of the late 90’s. Winning the lottery allowed them to grab the dynamic point guard out of UCLA, Baron Davis, instead of the 13th overall pick that year in Aleksandar Radojevic. Charlotte’s inability to put this karma to good use led to a string of poor performances and eventual move to New Orleans.
2009 NBA Draft- After years of demise, and the Los Angeles Lakers dynastic years of Kobe’s prime falling by the wayside, the NBA needed to make sure that this major market had some major players, and a marketable superstar to ensure greatness. The 2009 draft pegged the Clippers at 17% to grab the #1 pick that year, with the league’s 3rd worst record. The previously humorous flops of this franchise could not be allowed with a #2 lottery pick (Hasheem Thabeet), and so the Clippers went on to grab Blake Griffin and turn the Red, White, and Blue tenants of the Staples Center into a Western Conference powerhouse. I’d say this draft lottery fell into a hybrid of Karma and Corruption, but I felt it was better to put a positive spin on Lob-City.
2012 Lottery Picks
Now that you are well-versed in how the NBA draft Lottery “works” you should be confident in my abilities to pick the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery winners for 2012:
#1: Portland Trailblazers, 0.8% chance. A 7-foot center with game-changing capabilities coming off of an NCAA Championship appearance and touted as all-world could only be placed on the Blazers (Clippers are lucky they aren’t in this one). I will make no guarantees of Anthony Davis’s future health or success in the league, but there is a mighty long track record of momentum going against the big man out of Kentucky. Best of luck, and ice those knees son. Elements: Sadistic Humor
#2: Cleveland Cavs, 13.7% chance. Winning the draft lottery in 2011 was a start (most likely due to corruption, perfectly timed after LBJ’s departure, but we have since passed that section of this article and will move on). This franchise has been through some rough years with both an unfulfilled promise of Lebron’s 7 years, as well as some really awful weather to deal with on Cleveland. Not to mention that it is the most unsuccessful sports city in America. The Cavs will win the #2 spot, but will assign Dan Gilbert’s son to write-in their pick on draft day. Nick Gilbert, in an effort to follow up last year’s draft-day swag, will use short hand and write in “T-Ro” for #2 pick. NBA understandably agrees and grants them Terrance Ross, SG, Washington instead of Thomas Robinson. Elements: Sadistic Humor, Karma, Corruption
#3: Charlotte Bobcats, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick. With the top odds to receive the #1 overall pick, and almost certain odds to receive either of the highly touted AP All-Americans of Davis or Robinson, the Bobcats are stuck just out of reach, at #3. Michael Jordan’s legacy as an owner will continue to be judged, with no help from the lottery. When asked for their pick, the Bobcats reps scream out in anger “That’s just Heartless!” and are promptly rewarded Moe Harkless, SF St. Johns. (Alternate ending #1: Bobcats reps scream out “We need More than this!” and receive Ramone Moore, sg, Temple) (Alternate ending #2: In a lucky turn of events they yell out “You gotta be Kidding me!” and receive Michael Kidd-Gilchrist….. yea sounds like a long shot to me too).
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