Big 12 Preview and Predictions
By Corey and Michael Schneid
BIG 12 PREDICTED STANDINGS
Big 12 Expansion
Gone are Texas A&M and Missouri to the SEC. In are TCU and West Virginia. TCU is a great fit given their geographic proximity to some of the other schools. West Virginia doesn't make us much sense but their tradition and program will mesh well with the rest. Their style of play also fits in. West Virginia has really been the face of and the class of the Big East for a few years now. Losing Texas A&M and Missouri hurts a few rivalries but TCU is sure to create some trophy games with their new foes and the Mountaineers will also come right in ready to battle.
New Coaches: Charlie Weis, Kansas
Turner Gill last just two years in Lawrence - two pretty miserable years. He has been replaced by Charlie Weis, who had a long four year tenure with Notre Dame. After being fired by the Irish, Weis went to coach the Kansas City Chiefs offense for a year, before returning to college to coach Florida's offense in 2011. Florida's offense struggled due to a lack of personnel in 2011. Weis does not have a whole lot to work with in Kansas for year one as well. The pressure in Kansas is a little different than Notre Dame, although it is certainly harder to recruit Kansas than a high-profile school like the Irish.
Coach on the Hot Seat entering 2012
Tommy Tuberville, Texas Tech
Tuberville enters 2012 on our hot seat list mainly because he has yet to come close to replicating the success of predecessor Mike Leach as well as his own success at Auburn.
Notable Transfers:
Dayne Crist from Notre Dame to Kansas
Crist brings instant credibility to the QB position at Lawrence. He gets to reunite with the guy that brought him to Notre Dame to begin with, new coach Charlie Weis.
Lache Seastrunk, Oregon to Baylor
Seastrunk will have the chance for playing time with Terrance Gannaway having graduated. Glasco Martin and Jarred Salubi return from last year but if neither crab reigns on the position early, Seastrunk will see playing time.
Tyson Williams, West Texas A&M to Texas Tech
Texas Tech always employs a heavy-pass offense, which should continue with QB Seth Doege, who threw for 4,004 yards in 2011. Doege will have a new weapon at his disposal. Williams caught 162 passes for 2,168 yards and 13 scores
AWARDS:
Offensive Player of the Year: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
We think Oklahoma will win the Big 12 this year and Landry Jones will put up big numbers. There is no dominant defenses in the Big 12 that can stop Jones from finally reaching his full potential and the Sooners from returning to the BCS.
Defensive MVP: Alex Okafor, Texas
Okafor had 7 sacks in 2011 and came on strong at the end of the year. He will look to build on that from the beginning of 2012.
Coach of the Year: Bob Stoops, Oklahoma
Seems obvious and simple but we have the Sooners going 10-2 and winning the Big 12 but a few games so that should be enough to get Stoops Coach of the Year honors.
Freshmen of the Year: Jonathan Gray, RB, Texas
Gray owns quite a few Texas state records in high school. In his senior season he ran for 3,435 yards and 59 touchdowns on 295 carries. Wow.
TEAM PREVIEWS:
BAYLOR BEARS
Prediction: 7-5 overall, 4-5 Big 12, 7th place
Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 8 Defense
Players to Watch: TE Jordan Najvar, S Ahmad Dixon, WR Terrance Williams
Burning Question: How will Baylor fare in the post-RG3 era?
Analysis: Nick Florence is the front runner with Robert Griffin gone. Baylor loses their QB (RGIII), RB (Terrance Gannaway), and top WR (Kendall Wright) but should still be in good shape for 2012. Their success lies with the defense, where Baylor has 8 returning starters. Coach Art Briles has done a great job putting Baylor on the map and should be able to find a way to keep them there. Baylor has officially turned a corner and should be a consistent winner now. The return of WR Terrance Williams helps and they have some depth and experience at running back. The Bears also have eight returning starters on defense.
IOWA STATE CYCLONES
Prediction: 6-6 overall, 4-5 Big 12, 8th place
Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 5 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Jared Barnett, WR Josh Lenz, LB Jake Knott
Burning Question: After ruining Oklahoma State's national title run in 2011, what do the Cyclones have in store for 2012?
Analysis: Beating Oklahoma State on a Friday night in November and ruining their national title hopes was one of the biggest ones in Iowa State school history. Paul Rhoads is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Iowa State does not have as much talent as some of the other Big 12 teams that they are a good bet for another big upset and to go bowling once again.
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Prediction: 3-9 overall, 1-8 Big 12, 10th place
Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 6 Defense
Players to Watch: TE Mike Ragone, DL Toben Opurum, LB Darius Willis
Burning Question: How will the Charlie Weis-Dayne Crist experiment end?
Analysis: Weis recruited Crist to Notre Dame in 2008. Crist took advantage of the rule allowing graduate players to transfer and play immediately. Kansas will likely put up points, at least as the season progresses. We know Weis is an offensive mastermind (although last year in Florida was a disappointment). But as head coach of the Irish, the defense was always a major issue. Kansas needs to hope that Weis has learned from his previous mistakes and can recruit and coach up defense as well as offense.
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Prediction: 8-4 overall, 5-4 Big 12, 5th place
Returning Starters: 9 Offense, 7 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Colin Klein, LB Arthur Brown, CB Nigel Malone
Burning Question: Can the Wildcats build on their successful 2011 campaign?
Analysis: Kansas State was a candidate to play in a BCS game in 2011. With Colin Klein back for his senior season and no true standout team in the Big 12, Kansas State definitely has a chance to repeat their 2011 season.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Prediction: 10-2 overall, 7-2 Big 12, 1st place
Returning Starters: 8 Offense, 7 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Landry Jones, WR Kenny Stills, S Tony Jefferson
Burning Question: Can the Sooners avoid that one upset loss?
Analysis: Every year, expectations are high in Norman. Every year Oklahoma is expected to compete for the Big 12 title and BCS bid. But every year, the Sooners lose a game they should not. They must avoid the dreaded upset special. Oklahoma threw for the 5th most yards and scored the 10th most points in 2011. Replicating those numbers and improving their defense will earn them a BCS bid and Big 12 championship.
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
Prediction: 8-4 overall, 6-3 Big 12, 2nd place
Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 8 Defense
Players to Watch: RB Joseph Randle, CB Brodrick Brown, LB Shaun Lewis
Burning Question: Is running back Joseph Randle enough to lead the Cowboys back to the BCS without Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden?
Analysis: Oklahoma State went 11-1 and possibly should have played in the National Championship game in 2011. Instead, the beat Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl. They replace their top two offensive players from a year ago, Weeden and Blackmon. RB Joseph Randle ran for 1193 yards and 23 TDs. The Cowboys were 58th in total rush yards in 2011, a number that needs to increase while they sort out the QB position, a position that ranked 2nd in yards in 2011.
TCU HORNED FROGS
Prediction: 7-5 overall, 4-5 Big 12, 6th place
Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 7 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Casey Pachall, DL Stansly Maponga, WR Josh Bryce
Burning Question: How will TCU fare in their first season in the Big 12?
Analysis: TCU has dominated the "mid=major" ranks the last couple of years. They won the 2011 Rose Bowl, beating Big Ten champion Wisconsin. They made a Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2009 where they lost to Boise State. TCU has won the last three Mountain West championships. TCU has experience in big games and given their proximity to other Big 12 teams, they are going to enjoy their new conference. Of course, TCU now has easier access to the BCS in 2012 as well as the "playoffs" that begin in 2014. QB Casey Pachall had a nice 2011 season, replacing Andy Dalton, and will hope to improve on that. Pachall had 25 TDs and only 7 INTs. TCU was actually a better running team than passing and averaged 40.8 ppg (9th in country). They will need balance from their run/pass game in 2012 and need to continue to put up points in their new conference.
TEXAS LONGHORNS
Prediction: 8-4 overall, 5-4 Big 12, 4th place
Returning Starters: 10 Offense, 7 Defense
Players to Watch: QB David Ash, WR Jaxon Shipley, DE Alex Okafor
Burning Question: Can Texas solve their QB issues and get back to a bowl game?
Analysis: The Longhorns were a disappointing 5-7 last year and Mack Brown needs to have a big year. The big question is settling on a QB. David Ash and Case McCoy combined to finished 86th in passing yards in 2011. McCoy threw 144 passes, Ash 151. Both men had similar numbers, although Ash had just 4 TDs and 8 INT while McCoy had 7 TD, 4 INT. Mack Brown seems to favor Ash more than McCoy at times and needs to choose one and stick with them. Texas returns 10 starters on offense and on defense they return Alex Okafor, our early pick for Defensive Player of the Year in the Big 12
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Prediction: 6-6 overall, 3-6 Big 12, 9th place
Returning Starters: 9 Offense, 10 Defense
Players to Watch: S Cody Davis, WR Eric Ward, QB Seth Doege
Burning Question: After finishing last in the Big 12 in rushing defense, will their defense be improved enough to catch up to the offense to win some more games?
Analysis: The Red Raiders have 10 starters returning on defense. They play Texas and Oklahoma both at home. The biggest improvement needs to be that defense, which allowed 39.3 ppg in 2011 (117th out of 120). They can also improve on their running game. QB Seth Doege threw for over 4000 yards and did not even have a 1000 yard receiver. They add Tyson Williams as a transfer and freshmen Dominique Wheeler should see the field early, plus they return their leading receiver from 2011, Eric Ward. Wheeler was clocked at 4.4 in the 40 yard dash.
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Prediction: 9-3 overall, 6-3 Big 12, 3rd place
Returning Starters: 8 Offense, 6 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Geno Smith, WR Tavon Austin, LB Terence Garvin
Burning Question: After putting up 70 points in an Orange Bowl victory, will their offense translate to instant success and a BCS return in 2012 in their Big 12 debut?
Analysis: Dana Holgorson is very comfortable in the Big 12, where he was Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator before become the West Virginia head coach. West Virginia's offense was wildly inconsistent in 2011. They had some confusingly poor games. But in the Orange Bowl, everything came together and they put up 70 points on the ACC champs, Clemson. I don't think West Virginia will score 70 every game, but with Geno Smith throwing to Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, there is no reason why the Mountaineers cannot have one of the top offenses in the country, let alone the Big 12.
BIG 12 PREDICTED STANDINGS
| TEAM |
CONF |
OVERALL |
| Oklahoma |
7-2 |
10-2 |
|
Oklahoma State |
6-3 |
8-4 |
| West Virginia |
6-3 |
9-3 |
|
Texas |
5-4 |
8-4 |
| Kansas State |
5-4 |
8-4 |
|
TCU |
4-5 |
7-5 |
|
Baylor |
4-5 |
7-5 |
|
Iowa State |
4-5 |
6-6 |
| Texas Tech |
3-6 |
6-6 |
|
Kansas |
1-8 |
3-9 |
Big 12 Expansion
Gone are Texas A&M and Missouri to the SEC. In are TCU and West Virginia. TCU is a great fit given their geographic proximity to some of the other schools. West Virginia doesn't make us much sense but their tradition and program will mesh well with the rest. Their style of play also fits in. West Virginia has really been the face of and the class of the Big East for a few years now. Losing Texas A&M and Missouri hurts a few rivalries but TCU is sure to create some trophy games with their new foes and the Mountaineers will also come right in ready to battle.
New Coaches: Charlie Weis, Kansas
Turner Gill last just two years in Lawrence - two pretty miserable years. He has been replaced by Charlie Weis, who had a long four year tenure with Notre Dame. After being fired by the Irish, Weis went to coach the Kansas City Chiefs offense for a year, before returning to college to coach Florida's offense in 2011. Florida's offense struggled due to a lack of personnel in 2011. Weis does not have a whole lot to work with in Kansas for year one as well. The pressure in Kansas is a little different than Notre Dame, although it is certainly harder to recruit Kansas than a high-profile school like the Irish.
Coach on the Hot Seat entering 2012
Tommy Tuberville, Texas Tech
Tuberville enters 2012 on our hot seat list mainly because he has yet to come close to replicating the success of predecessor Mike Leach as well as his own success at Auburn.
Notable Transfers:
Dayne Crist from Notre Dame to Kansas
Crist brings instant credibility to the QB position at Lawrence. He gets to reunite with the guy that brought him to Notre Dame to begin with, new coach Charlie Weis.
Lache Seastrunk, Oregon to Baylor
Seastrunk will have the chance for playing time with Terrance Gannaway having graduated. Glasco Martin and Jarred Salubi return from last year but if neither crab reigns on the position early, Seastrunk will see playing time.
Tyson Williams, West Texas A&M to Texas Tech
Texas Tech always employs a heavy-pass offense, which should continue with QB Seth Doege, who threw for 4,004 yards in 2011. Doege will have a new weapon at his disposal. Williams caught 162 passes for 2,168 yards and 13 scores
AWARDS:
Offensive Player of the Year: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
We think Oklahoma will win the Big 12 this year and Landry Jones will put up big numbers. There is no dominant defenses in the Big 12 that can stop Jones from finally reaching his full potential and the Sooners from returning to the BCS.
Defensive MVP: Alex Okafor, Texas
Okafor had 7 sacks in 2011 and came on strong at the end of the year. He will look to build on that from the beginning of 2012.
Coach of the Year: Bob Stoops, Oklahoma
Seems obvious and simple but we have the Sooners going 10-2 and winning the Big 12 but a few games so that should be enough to get Stoops Coach of the Year honors.
Freshmen of the Year: Jonathan Gray, RB, Texas
Gray owns quite a few Texas state records in high school. In his senior season he ran for 3,435 yards and 59 touchdowns on 295 carries. Wow.
TEAM PREVIEWS:
BAYLOR BEARS
Prediction: 7-5 overall, 4-5 Big 12, 7th place
Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 8 Defense
Players to Watch: TE Jordan Najvar, S Ahmad Dixon, WR Terrance Williams
Burning Question: How will Baylor fare in the post-RG3 era?
Analysis: Nick Florence is the front runner with Robert Griffin gone. Baylor loses their QB (RGIII), RB (Terrance Gannaway), and top WR (Kendall Wright) but should still be in good shape for 2012. Their success lies with the defense, where Baylor has 8 returning starters. Coach Art Briles has done a great job putting Baylor on the map and should be able to find a way to keep them there. Baylor has officially turned a corner and should be a consistent winner now. The return of WR Terrance Williams helps and they have some depth and experience at running back. The Bears also have eight returning starters on defense.
IOWA STATE CYCLONES
Prediction: 6-6 overall, 4-5 Big 12, 8th place
Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 5 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Jared Barnett, WR Josh Lenz, LB Jake Knott
Burning Question: After ruining Oklahoma State's national title run in 2011, what do the Cyclones have in store for 2012?
Analysis: Beating Oklahoma State on a Friday night in November and ruining their national title hopes was one of the biggest ones in Iowa State school history. Paul Rhoads is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Iowa State does not have as much talent as some of the other Big 12 teams that they are a good bet for another big upset and to go bowling once again.
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Prediction: 3-9 overall, 1-8 Big 12, 10th place
Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 6 Defense
Players to Watch: TE Mike Ragone, DL Toben Opurum, LB Darius Willis
Burning Question: How will the Charlie Weis-Dayne Crist experiment end?
Analysis: Weis recruited Crist to Notre Dame in 2008. Crist took advantage of the rule allowing graduate players to transfer and play immediately. Kansas will likely put up points, at least as the season progresses. We know Weis is an offensive mastermind (although last year in Florida was a disappointment). But as head coach of the Irish, the defense was always a major issue. Kansas needs to hope that Weis has learned from his previous mistakes and can recruit and coach up defense as well as offense.
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Prediction: 8-4 overall, 5-4 Big 12, 5th place
Returning Starters: 9 Offense, 7 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Colin Klein, LB Arthur Brown, CB Nigel Malone
Burning Question: Can the Wildcats build on their successful 2011 campaign?
Analysis: Kansas State was a candidate to play in a BCS game in 2011. With Colin Klein back for his senior season and no true standout team in the Big 12, Kansas State definitely has a chance to repeat their 2011 season.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS
Prediction: 10-2 overall, 7-2 Big 12, 1st place
Returning Starters: 8 Offense, 7 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Landry Jones, WR Kenny Stills, S Tony Jefferson
Burning Question: Can the Sooners avoid that one upset loss?
Analysis: Every year, expectations are high in Norman. Every year Oklahoma is expected to compete for the Big 12 title and BCS bid. But every year, the Sooners lose a game they should not. They must avoid the dreaded upset special. Oklahoma threw for the 5th most yards and scored the 10th most points in 2011. Replicating those numbers and improving their defense will earn them a BCS bid and Big 12 championship.
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
Prediction: 8-4 overall, 6-3 Big 12, 2nd place
Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 8 Defense
Players to Watch: RB Joseph Randle, CB Brodrick Brown, LB Shaun Lewis
Burning Question: Is running back Joseph Randle enough to lead the Cowboys back to the BCS without Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden?
Analysis: Oklahoma State went 11-1 and possibly should have played in the National Championship game in 2011. Instead, the beat Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl. They replace their top two offensive players from a year ago, Weeden and Blackmon. RB Joseph Randle ran for 1193 yards and 23 TDs. The Cowboys were 58th in total rush yards in 2011, a number that needs to increase while they sort out the QB position, a position that ranked 2nd in yards in 2011.
TCU HORNED FROGS
Prediction: 7-5 overall, 4-5 Big 12, 6th place
Returning Starters: 6 Offense, 7 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Casey Pachall, DL Stansly Maponga, WR Josh Bryce
Burning Question: How will TCU fare in their first season in the Big 12?
Analysis: TCU has dominated the "mid=major" ranks the last couple of years. They won the 2011 Rose Bowl, beating Big Ten champion Wisconsin. They made a Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2009 where they lost to Boise State. TCU has won the last three Mountain West championships. TCU has experience in big games and given their proximity to other Big 12 teams, they are going to enjoy their new conference. Of course, TCU now has easier access to the BCS in 2012 as well as the "playoffs" that begin in 2014. QB Casey Pachall had a nice 2011 season, replacing Andy Dalton, and will hope to improve on that. Pachall had 25 TDs and only 7 INTs. TCU was actually a better running team than passing and averaged 40.8 ppg (9th in country). They will need balance from their run/pass game in 2012 and need to continue to put up points in their new conference.
TEXAS LONGHORNS
Prediction: 8-4 overall, 5-4 Big 12, 4th place
Returning Starters: 10 Offense, 7 Defense
Players to Watch: QB David Ash, WR Jaxon Shipley, DE Alex Okafor
Burning Question: Can Texas solve their QB issues and get back to a bowl game?
Analysis: The Longhorns were a disappointing 5-7 last year and Mack Brown needs to have a big year. The big question is settling on a QB. David Ash and Case McCoy combined to finished 86th in passing yards in 2011. McCoy threw 144 passes, Ash 151. Both men had similar numbers, although Ash had just 4 TDs and 8 INT while McCoy had 7 TD, 4 INT. Mack Brown seems to favor Ash more than McCoy at times and needs to choose one and stick with them. Texas returns 10 starters on offense and on defense they return Alex Okafor, our early pick for Defensive Player of the Year in the Big 12
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Prediction: 6-6 overall, 3-6 Big 12, 9th place
Returning Starters: 9 Offense, 10 Defense
Players to Watch: S Cody Davis, WR Eric Ward, QB Seth Doege
Burning Question: After finishing last in the Big 12 in rushing defense, will their defense be improved enough to catch up to the offense to win some more games?
Analysis: The Red Raiders have 10 starters returning on defense. They play Texas and Oklahoma both at home. The biggest improvement needs to be that defense, which allowed 39.3 ppg in 2011 (117th out of 120). They can also improve on their running game. QB Seth Doege threw for over 4000 yards and did not even have a 1000 yard receiver. They add Tyson Williams as a transfer and freshmen Dominique Wheeler should see the field early, plus they return their leading receiver from 2011, Eric Ward. Wheeler was clocked at 4.4 in the 40 yard dash.
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Prediction: 9-3 overall, 6-3 Big 12, 3rd place
Returning Starters: 8 Offense, 6 Defense
Players to Watch: QB Geno Smith, WR Tavon Austin, LB Terence Garvin
Burning Question: After putting up 70 points in an Orange Bowl victory, will their offense translate to instant success and a BCS return in 2012 in their Big 12 debut?
Analysis: Dana Holgorson is very comfortable in the Big 12, where he was Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator before become the West Virginia head coach. West Virginia's offense was wildly inconsistent in 2011. They had some confusingly poor games. But in the Orange Bowl, everything came together and they put up 70 points on the ACC champs, Clemson. I don't think West Virginia will score 70 every game, but with Geno Smith throwing to Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, there is no reason why the Mountaineers cannot have one of the top offenses in the country, let alone the Big 12.
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