2013 Big 12 Preview and Predictions
By Michael Schneid
As part of our 2013 College Football Preview, we have projected the winners of every game this coming season. The projections are based on general knowledge, trends, and team's recent history against schools.
Each preview includes projected win-loss records, as well as the teams they will win and lose to, a schedule analysis, number of returning starters, players to watch, and a key non-conference game.
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Analysis: QB Bryce Petty will replace Nick Florence. Petty has 14 career passes under his belt but coach Art Briles is known for high-powered offenses. However, this year's offense will revolve around the running game and RB Lache Seastrunk, a pre-season candidate for the Heisman trophy. Seastrunk ran for 1,012 yards and 7 TDs in 2012, after transferring from Oregon.
Analysis: After back-to-back bowl seasons, the Cyclones could take a step back this season. Like always, they play in-state rival Iowa, at home and travel to Tulsa, who they lost to in the Liberty Bowl last season. We projected ISU to open 0-6 in Big 12 play and 7 straight including loss to Tulsa after beating Iowa.Their lone Big 12 win is over Kansas, who also is projected to finish with one win. Iowa St only returns 5 starters on offense and 4 on defense, including a new QB, Sam Richardson. Paul Rhoads 5th season in Ames might be a rough one.
Kansas Jayhawks
Returning Starters: 7, 3 offense, 3 defense, 1 special teams
Analysis: The Jayhawks went 1-11 in Charlie Weis' first season, a win over South Dakota St. This year they open against South Dakota. But should be better than 2012. Better doesn't necessarily mean good though. We project one Big 12 win, at home against West Virginia. For the second straight year in the Charlie Weis era, Kansas will start a transfer at QB, former BYU QB Jake Heaps. Weis has developed Brady Quinn, Jimmy Clausen, and Matt Cassel. Of course Weis did fail to develop Dayne Crist - twice. Crist struggled at Notre Dame and transferred to Lawrence to reunite with his former coach and struggled in 2012. Jake Heaps had 3768 yards, 24 TD, 17 INT in his career at BYU.
Kansas State Wildcats
Returning Starters: 8, 7 offense, 1 defense, 0 special teams
Analysis: Kansas State lost their most valuable piece from their Big 12 Championship, Fiesta Bowl team in 2012, QB Colin Klein. Jake Waters and Daniels Sams will compete for the QB job. Bill Snyder's team continues rolling in 2013, they win three straight games at home vs Baylor, West Virginia, and Iowa St.
Analysis: The Sooners may take a step back without QB Landry Jones. Replacing him is Blake Bell, aka the "Bell Dozer." Bell is 6'6 265 pounds. Built like a fullback, he can definitely move the ball with his legs. But his progression as a passer will help Oklahoma in a big way, he has only thrown 20 career passes and their lead receiver from a year ago is gone, Kenny Stills. We actually project the Sooners to lose three of their last four and lose to Texas. The Sooners won 63-21 last year and Texas will get payback. But Oklahoma will get payback on Notre Dame, who handed Bob Stoops just his 5th home loss with the Sooners last season, en route to a perfect season.
Analysis: We project this to be the 2nd time in 3 years the Cowboys end the season with a win in Bedlam over Oklahoma. They open the season in Houston against Mississippi St. OK St was 7th in passing yards and should once again finish in the top ten in passing with Client Chelf. Losing RB Joseph Randle is but Jeremy Smith is a senior and should be able to fill the hole. Smith has 25 career TDs. Oklahoma State has a chance to return to a BCS bowl game again, like they did in 2011 and need another big year from their offense as well as an improved year from the defense.
Analysis: TCU will be a lot better and more competitive in losses in their second year in the Big 12. Gary Patterson's specialty is defense and 9 starters return from a defense ranked in the top 30 in 2012. We predict 5 straight wins to end the season with WVU, Iowa St, Kansas St, and Baylor. TCU opens the season with a major opportunity to make a statement, facing LSU in Cowboys Stadium. QB Casey Pachall returns after a suspension and some issues with alcohol and drug possesion. Pachall should be a big boost to the Horned Frogs offense.
Texas Longhorns
Returning Starters: 15, 8 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams
Analysis: In a previous article, we stated David Ash is the top rated QB in the Big 12. Ash will have a new offensive coordinator in 2013 and has distanced himself from backup Case McCoy to not have to look over his shoulder after a turnover or bad play. Sophomore RB Jonathan Gray and WRs Jaxon Shipley and Mike Davis return which should also be a big boost for Mack Brown's offense. Texas has a big game at BYU the second week and also host Ole Miss. They get Oklahoma St and Kansas St at home (games we project as wins). If they can split Baylor and TCU on the road, Texas could be in great position to finish atop the Big 12.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Returning Starters: 15, 5 offense, 8 defense, 2 special teams
Analysis: Tommy Tuberville was never fully embraced by fans in Lubbock. Tuberville left for Cincinnati and former Tech QB Kliff Kingsbury takes over as the new head coach. Kingsbury worked as an offensive coordinator the lat two seasons under Kevin Sumlin, in Houston in 2011 and with Texas A&M in 2012. Last year, he help coached QB Johnny Manziel to a Heisman trophy and in 2011 Houston QB Case Keenum was a finalist for the award and broke several NCAA records. Michael Brewer will likely be his first QB project at Texas Tech. While they break in a new QB, Tech does return their top two receivers from a year ago, including all conference WR Eric Ward.
We expect big thing from the young head coach in his first season, including an upset win over Oklahoma St. We see Texas Tech starting the season 6-0, before losing 2 straight. Our 8 win prediction is probably their ceiling but the Red Raiders have potential for another explosive offensive season
West Virginia Mountaineers
Returning Starters: 9, 3 offense, 6 defense, 0 special teams
Analysis: West Virginia should take a step back offensively from 2012, where they ranked 10th in passing yards and 9th in points for. Gone are QB Geno Smith and WRs Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. WVU will have a three-man QB competition in camp, with the favorite being FSU transfer Clint Trickett. The biggest issue with the Mountaineers was their defense, allowing 38 ppg last year, 117th nationally. We do project West Virginia to pull off a couple of big upsets in Morgantown, over Oklahoma St and Texas. But five road losses will be this team's problem, including a big upset loss at Kansas.
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As part of our 2013 College Football Preview, we have projected the winners of every game this coming season. The projections are based on general knowledge, trends, and team's recent history against schools.
Each preview includes projected win-loss records, as well as the teams they will win and lose to, a schedule analysis, number of returning starters, players to watch, and a key non-conference game.
Previous Related Articles:
PROJECTED BIG 12 STANDINGS
SCHOOL
|
BIG 12
|
OVERALL
|
Texas
|
7-2
|
10-2
|
Oklahoma State
|
6-3
|
9-3
|
TCU
|
6-3
|
8-4
|
Oklahoma
|
5-4
|
8-4
|
Baylor
|
5-4
|
8-4
|
Texas Tech
|
5-4
|
8-4
|
Kansas State
|
5-4
|
8-4
|
West Virginia
|
4-5
|
7-5
|
Iowa State
|
1-8
|
3-9
|
Kansas
|
1-8
|
4-8
|
Baylor
Bears
Returning Starters: 15, 6 offense, 7 defense, 2 special teams
Returning Starters: 15, 6 offense, 7 defense, 2 special teams
Players
to Watch: RB Lache Seastrunk, CB Kyle Morton
Best
Non-Conference Game: vs. Louisiana-Monroe (9/21)
Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12), 5th Place
Wins:
Wofford, Buffalo, Louisiana-Monroe,
West Virginia, Iowa State, @ Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Losses:
@ Kansas State, @ Oklahoma St, @ TCU,
Texas
Analysis: QB Bryce Petty will replace Nick Florence. Petty has 14 career passes under his belt but coach Art Briles is known for high-powered offenses. However, this year's offense will revolve around the running game and RB Lache Seastrunk, a pre-season candidate for the Heisman trophy. Seastrunk ran for 1,012 yards and 7 TDs in 2012, after transferring from Oregon.
Baylor's non-conference schedule is very underwhelming. They host Wofford, Buffalo, and Louisiana-Monroe. They get both Texas and Oklahoma at home. We project a win over Texas and loss to Oklahoma so a split of the Red River Rival teams would be good for Baylor. Their other three projected losses all come on the road, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and TCU, all among the Big 12's best.
Iowa State Cyclones
Returning Starters: 11, 5 offense, 4 defense, 2 special teams
Returning Starters: 11, 5 offense, 4 defense, 2 special teams
Players
to Watch: RT Kyle Lichtenberg, FS Jacques Washington
Best
Non-Conference Game: @ Tulsa (9/26)
Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12), 9th Place
Wins:
Northern Iowa, Iowa, Kansas
Losses:
@Tulsa, Texas, @ Texas Tech, @
Baylor, Oklahoma St, @ Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma, @ West Virginia
Analysis: After back-to-back bowl seasons, the Cyclones could take a step back this season. Like always, they play in-state rival Iowa, at home and travel to Tulsa, who they lost to in the Liberty Bowl last season. We projected ISU to open 0-6 in Big 12 play and 7 straight including loss to Tulsa after beating Iowa.Their lone Big 12 win is over Kansas, who also is projected to finish with one win. Iowa St only returns 5 starters on offense and 4 on defense, including a new QB, Sam Richardson. Paul Rhoads 5th season in Ames might be a rough one.
Kansas Jayhawks
Returning Starters: 7, 3 offense, 3 defense, 1 special teams
Players
to Watch: QB Jake Heaps, LB Ben Heeney
Best
Non-Conference Game: @ Rice (9/14)
Prediction: 4-8 (1-8 Big 12), 10th Place
Wins:
South Dakota, @ Rice, Louisiana
Tech, West Virginia
Losses:
Texas Tech, @ TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor,
@ Texas, @ Oklahoma St, @ Iowa St, Kansas St
Analysis: The Jayhawks went 1-11 in Charlie Weis' first season, a win over South Dakota St. This year they open against South Dakota. But should be better than 2012. Better doesn't necessarily mean good though. We project one Big 12 win, at home against West Virginia. For the second straight year in the Charlie Weis era, Kansas will start a transfer at QB, former BYU QB Jake Heaps. Weis has developed Brady Quinn, Jimmy Clausen, and Matt Cassel. Of course Weis did fail to develop Dayne Crist - twice. Crist struggled at Notre Dame and transferred to Lawrence to reunite with his former coach and struggled in 2012. Jake Heaps had 3768 yards, 24 TD, 17 INT in his career at BYU.
Kansas has a handful of JUCO players on both sides of the ball and only 3 starters returning on each side. Weis and his coordinators need to do a better job of developing young players and recruiting. They have a chance to do better in 2013 but not by much.
Kansas State Wildcats
Returning Starters: 8, 7 offense, 1 defense, 0 special teams
Players
to Watch: RB John Hubert, CB Randall Evans
Best
Non-Conference Game: vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (9/7)
Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12), 7th Place
Wins:
North Dakota St,
Louisiana-Lafayette, Umass, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St, Oklahoma, @ Kansas
Losses:
@ Texas, @ Oklahoma St, @ Texas Tech,
TCU
Analysis: Kansas State lost their most valuable piece from their Big 12 Championship, Fiesta Bowl team in 2012, QB Colin Klein. Jake Waters and Daniels Sams will compete for the QB job. Bill Snyder's team continues rolling in 2013, they win three straight games at home vs Baylor, West Virginia, and Iowa St.
Oklahoma Sooners
Returning Starters: 12, 7 offense, 4 defense, 1 special teams
Returning Starters: 12, 7 offense, 4 defense, 1 special teams
Players
to Watch: RB Damien Williams, LB Corey Nelson
Best
Non-Conference Game: @ Notre Dame (9/28)
Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12), 4th Place
Wins:
Louisiana-Monroe, West Virginia,
Tulsa, @ Notre Dame, TCU, @ Kansas,
Texas Tech, Iowa St
Losses:
vs. Texas, @ Baylor, @ Kansas St, @
Oklahoma St
Analysis: The Sooners may take a step back without QB Landry Jones. Replacing him is Blake Bell, aka the "Bell Dozer." Bell is 6'6 265 pounds. Built like a fullback, he can definitely move the ball with his legs. But his progression as a passer will help Oklahoma in a big way, he has only thrown 20 career passes and their lead receiver from a year ago is gone, Kenny Stills. We actually project the Sooners to lose three of their last four and lose to Texas. The Sooners won 63-21 last year and Texas will get payback. But Oklahoma will get payback on Notre Dame, who handed Bob Stoops just his 5th home loss with the Sooners last season, en route to a perfect season.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Returning Starters: 17, 8 offense, 8 defense, 1 special teams
Returning Starters: 17, 8 offense, 8 defense, 1 special teams
Players
to Watch: QB Clint Chelf, CB Justin Gilbert
Best
Non-Conference Game: vs. Mississippi St (8/31, Houston)
Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12), 2nd Place
Wins:
Mississippi St, @ UTSA, Lamar, Kansas
St, TCU, @ Iowa St, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma
Losses:
@ West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, @
Texas,
Analysis: We project this to be the 2nd time in 3 years the Cowboys end the season with a win in Bedlam over Oklahoma. They open the season in Houston against Mississippi St. OK St was 7th in passing yards and should once again finish in the top ten in passing with Client Chelf. Losing RB Joseph Randle is but Jeremy Smith is a senior and should be able to fill the hole. Smith has 25 career TDs. Oklahoma State has a chance to return to a BCS bowl game again, like they did in 2011 and need another big year from their offense as well as an improved year from the defense.
TCU Horned Frogs
Returning Starters: 17, 6 offense, 9 defense, 2 special teams
Returning Starters: 17, 6 offense, 9 defense, 2 special teams
Players
to Watch: QB Casey Pachall, DE Devonte Field
Best
Non-Conference Game: vs. LSU (8/31, Arlington, TX)
Prediction: 8-4 (6-3 Big 12), 3rd Place
Wins:
Southeastern Louisiana, SMU, Kansas,
Texas, West Virginia, @ Iowa St, @ Kansas St, Baylor
Losses:
LSU, @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma, @
Oklahoma St
Analysis: TCU will be a lot better and more competitive in losses in their second year in the Big 12. Gary Patterson's specialty is defense and 9 starters return from a defense ranked in the top 30 in 2012. We predict 5 straight wins to end the season with WVU, Iowa St, Kansas St, and Baylor. TCU opens the season with a major opportunity to make a statement, facing LSU in Cowboys Stadium. QB Casey Pachall returns after a suspension and some issues with alcohol and drug possesion. Pachall should be a big boost to the Horned Frogs offense.
Texas Longhorns
Returning Starters: 15, 8 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams
Players
to Watch: QB David Ash, DE Jackson Jeffcoat
Best
Non-Conference Game: @ BYU (9/7)
Prediction: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12), 1st Place
Wins:
New Mexico St, @ BYU, Ole Miss,
Kansas St, @ Iowa St, Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, @ Baylor
Losses:
@ TCU, @ West Virginia
Analysis: In a previous article, we stated David Ash is the top rated QB in the Big 12. Ash will have a new offensive coordinator in 2013 and has distanced himself from backup Case McCoy to not have to look over his shoulder after a turnover or bad play. Sophomore RB Jonathan Gray and WRs Jaxon Shipley and Mike Davis return which should also be a big boost for Mack Brown's offense. Texas has a big game at BYU the second week and also host Ole Miss. They get Oklahoma St and Kansas St at home (games we project as wins). If they can split Baylor and TCU on the road, Texas could be in great position to finish atop the Big 12.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Returning Starters: 15, 5 offense, 8 defense, 2 special teams
Players
to Watch: WR Eric Ward, DE Kerry Hyder
Best
Non-Conference Game: vs. TCU (9/12)
Prediction: 8-4 (5-3 Big 12), 6th Place
Wins:
@SMU, Stephen F Austin, TCU, Texas
St, @ Kansas, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Kansas St
Losses:
@ West Virginia, @ Oklahoma, Baylor,
@ Texas
Analysis: Tommy Tuberville was never fully embraced by fans in Lubbock. Tuberville left for Cincinnati and former Tech QB Kliff Kingsbury takes over as the new head coach. Kingsbury worked as an offensive coordinator the lat two seasons under Kevin Sumlin, in Houston in 2011 and with Texas A&M in 2012. Last year, he help coached QB Johnny Manziel to a Heisman trophy and in 2011 Houston QB Case Keenum was a finalist for the award and broke several NCAA records. Michael Brewer will likely be his first QB project at Texas Tech. While they break in a new QB, Tech does return their top two receivers from a year ago, including all conference WR Eric Ward.
We expect big thing from the young head coach in his first season, including an upset win over Oklahoma St. We see Texas Tech starting the season 6-0, before losing 2 straight. Our 8 win prediction is probably their ceiling but the Red Raiders have potential for another explosive offensive season
West Virginia Mountaineers
Returning Starters: 9, 3 offense, 6 defense, 0 special teams
Players
to Watch: RB Andrew Buie, DT Will Clark
Best
Non-Conference Game: vs. Maryland (9/21, Baltimore, MD)
Prediction: 7-5 (4-5 Big 12), 8th Place
Wins:
William @ Mary, Georgia St, @
Maryland, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa St
Losses:
@ Oklahoma, @ Baylor, @ Kansas St, @
TCU, @ Kansas
Analysis: West Virginia should take a step back offensively from 2012, where they ranked 10th in passing yards and 9th in points for. Gone are QB Geno Smith and WRs Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. WVU will have a three-man QB competition in camp, with the favorite being FSU transfer Clint Trickett. The biggest issue with the Mountaineers was their defense, allowing 38 ppg last year, 117th nationally. We do project West Virginia to pull off a couple of big upsets in Morgantown, over Oklahoma St and Texas. But five road losses will be this team's problem, including a big upset loss at Kansas.
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