College Football Coaching Carousel Analysis

By Michael Schneid

We're getting to that time of the year where head coaching rumors stop to heat up. Several teams have already fired their head coach (USC, Uconn, Miami OH, Eastern Michigan) and many more will in the next few weeks.

We take a look at some of the BCS conference schools who have fired or will or perhaps should fire their head coach in the next month and explore some possible options for replacements.


Uconn: This is a really interesting team. They fired Paul Pasqualoni in early October after a winless start (they still haven't won). Uconn could go with a retread head coach, a proven, solid option to turn this program around. Or they can hire a first time head coach.

• Dan Mullen may need an escape route from Mississippi State, and at the risk of being fired, could opt to leave on his own terms and go to Uconn, where 7-5, 8-4 seasons will be accepted with open arms. Mullen has had mediocre success at Miss State, which isnt good enough by SEC standards. But Uconn, playing in the American would simply offer Mullen easier schedule yearly.
• Houston Nutt hasn't coached since being fired by Ole Miss in 2011 and has reportedly shown interest in the area. He has won before and would be an intriguing candidate.
• Greg Schiano has northeast experience having coached at Rutgers for 11 years and will likely be fired by the TB Bucs in December. Schiano could return to coaching in his old conference (sort of) and use Uconn to help rebuild his reputation.
• Ed Orgeron has done a great job at USC as the interim coach, holding together and succeed with the Trojans after Lane Kiffin's firing. He was a big failure at Ole Miss once but maybe Uconn will give him a second shot.

 

The Huskes may also choose to go with one of several current defensive coordinators, such as Pat Narduzzi (Michigan State), Kirby Smart (Alabama), or Bud Foster (Virginia Tech). Either way, the Huskies should have no shortage of candidates, despite a lack of recent success.

USC: Despite rumors of NFL guys who are Trojan alums like Jeff Fisher and Jack Del Rio, there are two current college coaches we see as perfect fits for this job.

• Kevin Sumlin: USC is arguably one of the biggest jobs in the country. Kevin Sumlin will lose his LT Jake Mathews, QB Johnny Manziel. The cupboard is far from bare but with A&M playing in the same division as Alabama, Auburn, and LSU, the path to an SEC title game will never be easy. Meanwhile at USC, all Sumlin would need to do is hold off UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona St every year to play in the Pac 12 championship. There's a big difference...
  
  
• Chris Peterson: Peterson has likely taken Boise State as far as they can go. MWC is better than WAC. If Peterson was ever going to leave, you have to believe this is the kind of job he would leave for.

 

Texas: Personally, I don't think Mack Brown will or should be fired. He has done a great job this year after a rough start and has dealt with plenty of injuries and obviously adversity. Also with a new AD, I'm not sure he wants to immediately fire a legend like Brown, which would alienate a lot of former players and perhaps boosters. 

For fun though, if Texas or Brown himself, decided it was time to move on, Florida's Will Muschamp and Baylor's Art Briles would top my list. If Texas can't lure Nick Saban (they can't) perhaps his defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano, Vandy's James Franklin, Northwestern's Pat Fitgerald should all get calls.

Virginia: The wheels have fallen off for Mike London. His first three years win totals - 4, 8, 4. This year the Cavs are 2-8. Failing to reach 6 wins in 3 of 4 seasons will likely cost London his job.

 The perfect candidate for Virginia is Bud Foster, Virginia Tech's defensive coordinator. Foster has been the VT DC since 1995 and has long been considered the unofficial coach in waiting for Frank Beamer. But Beamer may not retire for a few years and Foster would have a chance to stay local in a familiar area where he can recruit. The only question is whether or not Foster would want to go up against the school that he has worked for almost 20 years. 

 Rob Ambrose is the current coach at Towson and is also familiar with the area. However, Mike London was hired from an FCS school (Richmond) and has obviously been a failure so its doubtful Virginia would go down that road twice. 

Wake Forest: Wake Forest is currently 4-6 and end the season with Duke and Vanderbilt. If they go 0-2 it would mean 5 straight losses to end the year and would likely end Jim Grobe's tenure at Wake, where he has been the head coach since 2001. Pete Lembo could be a name to watch. In his third year at Ball State, the Cardinals are 9-1, after going 9-4 a year ago. He has previous head coaching experience in North Carolina at FCS Elon. Lembo could bring youth and enthusiasm needed to rejuvenate the program.

Washington: At 6-3 and games at UCLA and at Oregon State coming up next, 7 wins might be the Huskies ceiling. They end the season at home with Washington State, who may need to win to become bowl eligible. If Washington loses their final 3 games, expect Steve Sarkisian to be fired.
The pool of candidates would be wide open but Fresno State's Tim DeRuyter makes a ton of sense. He has the west coast experience, besides Fresno State, previously coaching at Nevada and Air Force as an assistant as well as at Texas A&. DeRuyter has Fresno States on the verge of school's first ever BCS appearance, a year after winning 9 games. 

 

Florida: Here is one of the bigger question marks of the coaching carousel. And in our case, one of our bolder predictions. Bob Stoops may have finally run his course at Oklahoma after 15 years. While the Sooners will always contend for the Big 12 title, he hasnt gotten close to a national championship since 2008. Stoops has long been tied to Florida and what better time to go than now.

Nebraska: Nebraska is a tricky one. It's considered possible but up in the air that Nebraska will fire Bo Pelini. Pelini was hired with no previous head coaching experience so it's possible that this time around Nebraska pursues someone with such experience. Someone like Tim DeRuyter from Fresno State would be a great fit, but people may question a "highly touted program" like Nebraska taking a coach from a school like Fresno State. Perhaps money can lure Baylor head coach Art Briles out of Waco and onto Lincoln? Charlie Strong, despite not having midwest ties, would also be an intriguing candidate.

 

SMU: June Jones is 34-39 in 6 six at SMU. He may be getting stale there and with a new, wide open conference, SMU may feel a change now could help turn the program turn the corner. SMU has won 7 or 8 games the last three seasons but it's possible they go in a different direction. An in-state guy like Larry Coker at UTSA may be looking for one more shot at a big school.

Kansas: Charlie Weis has made absolutely zero progress at Kansas. We're not usually in favor of firing a coach after two seasons but the hiring of Weis was a mistake from day one and two years later has proven to be an absolute disaster. Not even sure where Kansas goes next after four wasted years.

Names not mentioned to watch for:
Former FIU coach and Alabama assistant Mario Cristobol, Western Kentucky head coach Bobby Petrino, Texas A&M DC Mark Snyder, former Florida coach Ron Zook, Louisiana-Lafayette head coach Mark Hudspeth,