2013 Big Ten Preview and Predictions

By Michael Schneid

As part of our 2013 College Football Preview, we have projected the winners of every game this coming season. The projections are based on general knowledge, trends, and team's recent history against schools.

Each preview includes projected win-loss records, as well as the teams they will win and lose to, a schedule analysis, number of returning starters, players to watch, and a key non-conference game.

PROJECTED BIG TEN STANDINGS

LEADERS			LEGENDS
SCHOOL	B1G	OVERALL	SCHOOL	B1G	OVERALL
Ohio State	7-1	10-2	Nebraska	6-2	10-2
Wisconsin	5-3	8-4	Michigan	6-2	10-2
Indiana	4-4	8-4	Northwestern	5-3	9-3
Penn State	3-5	7-5	Michigan State	4-4	7-5
Purdue	2-6	4-8	Minnesota	4-4	7-5
Illinois	1-7	3-5	Iowa	1-7	3-9

PREVIOUS CONFERENCE PREVIEWS: ACC

Illinois Fighting Illini
Returning Starters: 14, 9 offense, 4 defense, 1 special teams

Players to Watch: QB Nathan Scheelhaase, DE Tim Kynard

Best Non-Conference Game: vs. Cincinnati (9/7)

Prediction: 3-9 (1-7 B1G), 6^th Place Leaders Division

Wins: Southern Illinois, Miami (OH), Michigan State

Losses: Cincinnati, Washington, @ Nebraska, Wisconsin, @ Penn St, @ Indiana, Ohio St, @ Purdue, Northwestern,

Analysis: It could be another rough year of Big Ten play in Champaign. Coach Tim Beckman got off to a rough start going 2-10, losing their last 9 games and not winning a Big Ten game. Our projection for 2013 is a little better, with an emphasis on "a little." After opening against FCS Southern Illinois, Illini play consecutive home games against Cincinnati and Washington.Their Big Ten schedule is not easy. They dont play Michigan school, but face Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Their easiest (B1G) game is arguably Purdue and that is on the road.

Indiana Hoosiers

Returning Starters: 21, 10 offense, 9 defense, 2 special teams

Players to Watch: QB Trey Roberson, WR Kofi Hughes LB Griffen Dahlstrom

Best Non-Conference Game: vs. Missouri (9/21)

Prediction: 8-4 (4-4 B1G), 3^rd Place Leaders Division

Wins: Indiana St, Navy, Bowling Green, Missouri, Penn State, Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue

Losses: @ Michigan State, @ Michigan, @ Wisconsin, @ Ohio State

Analysis: Indiana University has had a very successful 2013. Men's basketball team made a Sweet 16 run, the baseball team went to College World Series, the Soccer team won national title (and could open 2013 as #1). Now, can the football team continue the school's momentum?

All it would take to continue the momentum would simply be to go bowling, something IU has not done since 2007 (1993 before that. A bowl game is not something Indiana is used to. They have only played in nine in school history. But we believe Indiana is a sleeper team to watch in the Big Ten.

The main reason for our optimism is Indiana's experience. Kevin Wilson is entering his third season and he returns 19/22 starters on offense and defense. One of the returnees is QB Tre Roberson. Roberson attempted just 50 passes after going down with a torn ACL. The dual threat QB has a lot of potential. Kofi Hughes is a potential All-B1G WR and Cody Latimer and Shane Lynn also return as starters at receiver. 

The Hoosiers first five games at home including visits from Missouri and Penn St. Going 1-1 at home in those two would be good. Winning both, as we project, would be fantastic.  8 wins is an extremely generous prediction. 6 wins would be fair, and a good season as Indiana would go bowling. Navy  and Bowling Green visit Bloomington and those games should not be taken lightly. However, Indiana St, Navy, Bowling Green, Illinois, Purdue all at home are realistic wins. So if they can win a few others, like Missouri, Penn St, Minnesota, all home games, Indiana can have a breakout season in the Big Ten.

Iowa Hawkeyes
Returning Starters: 16, 6 offense, 8 defense, 2 special teams

Players to Watch: RB Mark Weisman, CB BJ Lowery

Best Non-Conference Game: @ Iowa State (9/14)

Prediction: 3-9 (1-7 B1G), 6^th Place Legends Division

Wins: Missouri State, Western Michigan, Wisconsin

Losses: Northern Illinois, @ Iowa State, @ Tulsa, @ Minnesota, Michigan State, @ Ohio State, Northwestern, @ Purdue, Michigan, @ Nebraska

Analysis: Kirk Ferentz is out at Iowa if the Hawkeyes can’t get to a bowl game. It might even take 7-8 wins to save his job, despite the hefty buyout in his contract. Wins will be hard to come by for Iowa in Big Ten play. At Purdue and is probably their most winnable game. Playing Wisconsin and Michigan State at home could serve as possible upsets. Their non-conference slate is not easy. They open the season with Northern Illinois, who played in the Orange Bowl last season and travel to Tulsa, one of the favorites in Conference USA. And as always they play in-state rival Iowa State, on the road. It could be a rough year for Iowa and the last one for Kirk Ferentz. 

Michigan Wolverines
Returning Starters: 13, 5 offense, 6 defense, 2 special teams

Players to Watch: QB Devin Gardner, RB Fitzgerald Toussaint

Best Non-Conference Game: vs. Notre Dame (9/7)

Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 B1G), 2^nd Place Legends Division

Wins: Central Michigan, Notre Dame, Akron, @ Uconn, Minnesota, @ Penn St, Indiana, @ Michigan St, @ Northwestern, @ Iowa

Losses: Nebraska, Ohio State

Analysis: We project Michigan to start 8-0 and for both losses to come at home, to Big Ten favorites Nebraska and Ohio State. The Ohio State game could have a lot of meaning depending on OSU’s record and if a national championship game appearance may be at stake. Michigan has tough games at Penn State, Michigan State, and Northwestern so 10-2 may be a bit generous.

 

Michigan State Spartans
Returning Starters: 19, 9 offense, 7 defense, 3 special teams

Players to Watch: QB Andrew Maxwell, SS Isaiah Lewis

Best Non-Conference Game: @ Notre Dame (9/21)

Prediction: 7-5 (4-4 B1G), 4^th Place Leaders Division

Wins: Western Michigan, South Florida, Youngstown St, @ Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota

Losses: @ Notre Dame, @ Illinois, Michigan, @ Nebraska, @ Northwestern

Analysis: Much of Michigan State's 2013 success will depend on their offense, and the continued development of QB Andrew Maxwell. Maxwell only threw 13 TD and 9 INT in 2012, completing 52.5% of his passes. Sparty was 86th in the nation in passing yards. According to our projections, Michigan State is in for a rough stretch where they lose four in a row, three of which on the road – at Illinois, Michigan, at Nebraska, and at Northwestern.

Minnesota Golden Gophers
Returning Starters: 17, 10 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams

Players to Watch: RB Donnell Kirkwood, LB Aaron Hill

Best Non-Conference Game: vs. San Jose State (9/21)

Prediction: 7-5 (4-4 B1G), 5^th Place in Leaders Division

Wins: UNLV, @ New Mexico St, Western Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn St, Wisconsin

Losses: San Jose St, @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, @ Indiana, @ Michigan St

Analysis: The Gophers went bowling in 2012 and should do so again in 2013. The toughest non-conference game is San Jose State at home. SJ State has one of the top QBs in the nation, David Falas, and get a couple of the middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams at home like Penn State and Wisconsin. We project them to lose all four Big Ten road games, with Indiana being the most winnable of the four. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Returning Starters: 13, 7 offense, 5 defense, 1 special teams

Players to Watch: QB Taylor Martinez, DE Jason Ankrah

Best Non-Conference Game: vs. UCLA (9/14)

Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 B1G), 1^st Place Leaders Division

Wins: Wyoming, Southern Miss, UCLA, South Dakota St, Illinois, @ Purdue, Northwestern, @ Michigan, Michigan St, Iowa

Losses: @ Minnesota, @ Penn St

Analysis: Nebraska played in the Big Ten title game in 2012, and got blown out by Wisconsin. They have a very good chance to return to that game, especially with QB Taylor Martinez returning. Nebraska does not play Ohio State or Wisconsin in 2013. Their toughest road game is at Michigan. Nebraska has a very good chance to return to the Big Ten title game, where they could be in line to face Ohio State. A BCS bowl game is the goal in Lincoln and anything less would be another underwhelming year for coach. Bo Pelini

Northwestern Wildcats
Returning Starters: 17, 8 offense, 7 defense, 2 special teams

Players to Watch: RB Venric Mark, DE Tyler Scott

Best Non-Conference Game: @ California (8/31)

Prediction: 9-3 (5-3 B1G), 3^rd Place Leaders Division

Wins: @ California, Syracuse, Western Michigan, Maine, Ohio State, Minnesota, @ Iowa, Michigan State, @ Illinois

Losses: @ Wisconsin, @ Nebraska, Michigan

Analysis: 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense returns from a team than won 10 games in 2012. Northwestern has a chance to reach the 10 win mark again in 2013. The Wildcats strength on offense is their running game. They were 19th in the nation in rushing yards in 2012 led by RB Venric Mark who had 1366 yards and 12 TD and QB Kain Colter ran for 894 yards and 12 TD too. Colter completed 67.8% of his passes, but only threw 149 passes. Their defense is their strength. We project their three losses to be road games at Wisconsin and Nebraska and home against Michigan. We do think Northwestern will pull off one of the year's biggest upsets - knocking off Ohio State at home on 10/5. 

Ohio State Buckeyes

Returning Starters: 14, 9 offense, 4 defense, 1 special teams

Players to Watch: QB Braxton Miller, S CJ Barnett

Best Non-Conference Game: @ California (9/14)

Prediction: 10-2 (7-1 B1G), 1^st Place Leaders Division

Wins: Buffalo, SD St, Florida A&M, Wisconsin, @ Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State, @ Purdue, @ Illinois, Indiana, Michigan

Losses: @ California, @ Northwestern

Analysis: Expectations are through the roof after a perfect season. Coach Urban Meyer has a Heisman candidate QB in Braxton Miller. Playing at California early in the season will be a rough game. But Cal is breaking in a new QB and may not be ready for a great opponent like OSU. Call us crazy, but we think Cal can pull off the shocking upset against the Buckeyes. Cal gave OSU a battle in Columbus in 2012 and could give them another tough game in 2013. We also project the Buckeyes to lose at Northwestern in another big upset. Urban Meyer's second season should still end well. Ohio St will go to a major bowl game after not bowling despite a 12-0 season last year. They should be in the Big Ten title game and could make a Rose Bowl appearance, if not National Championship game or another BCS bowl.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Returning Starters: 15, 8 offense, 5 defense, 2 special teams

Players to Watch: WR Allen Robinson, LB Glenn Carson

Best Non-Conference Game: vs. Syracuse (8/31, MetLife Stadium, NJ)

Prediction: 7-5 (3-5 B1G), 4^th Place Leaders Division

Wins: Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, UCF, Kent St, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska

Losses: @ Indiana, Michigan, @ Ohio State, @ Minnesota, @ Wisconsin

Analysis: Penn State went 8-4 in 2012. Their first season since 1966 without the late, great Joe Paterno as head coach. Bill O'Brien did an outstanding job, all things considered. Eight players transferred from Penn St before the season, after the Nittany Lions were handed unprecedented NCAA sanctions. Because of those sanctions, Penn St will not play in a bowl game again in 2013, no matter how many games they win. Despite a reduction in scholarships, O'Brien continues to recruit well. Penn St signed the #1 TE Adam Breneman and the #2 QB in the nation Christian Hackenberg, who has a chance to start as a true freshman.

We project a tough stretch for PSU losing three in a row to Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio State. They host Michigan and Nebraska and project them to beat Nebraska. Nebraska and Michigan, along with Ohio St are the three favorites in the Big Ten so a win or two over any of those three would be a big boost.

 

Purdue Boilermakers
Returning Starters: 15, 5 offense, 8 defense, 2 special teams

Players to Watch: TE Gabe Holmes, DE Ryan Isaac

Best Non-Conference Game: @ Cincinnati (8/31)

Prediction: 4-8 (2-6 B1G), 5^th Place Leaders Division

Wins: Indiana St, Northern Illinois, Iowa, Illinois

Losses: @ Cincinnati, Notre Dame, @ Wisconsin, Nebraska, @ Michigan St, Ohio St, @ Penn St, @ Indiana

Analysis: Darrell Hazell is the new Purdue coach, coming from Kent State. Hazell’s Kent St team lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC championship, costing them a chance at a BCS game. NIU is on Purdue’s schedule and Hazell will have his new team fired up to exact revenge. Purdue will play hard and be competitive all season but it simply take a year to rebuild the Boilermakers and get them back to the middle of the Big Ten.

 

Wisconsin Badgers
Returning Starters: 18, 9 offense, 7 defense, 2 special teams

Players to Watch: WR Jared Abbrederis, LB Chris Borland

Best Non-Conference Game: @ Arizona State (9/14)

Prediction: 8-4 (5-3 B1G), 2^nd Place Leaders Division

Wins: Umass, Tennessee Tech, Purdue, Northwestern, @ Illinois, BYU, Indiana, Penn St

Losses: @ Arizona St, @ Ohio St, @ Iowa, @ Minnesota,

Analysis: Wisconsin hired former Utah State coach Gary Anderson after Bret Bielema bolted for Arkansas, after three straight Rose Bowl appearances. The Badgers lost All-American RB Montee Ball but do return 16 starters on offense and defense. We project them to split their two tough non-conference games against BYU and at Arizona State. Badgers need to avoid bad losses like at Iowa, that we project and at Minnesota. Hosting Purdue, Northwester, Indiana, and Penn St is a nice boost and not playing either Michigan team or Nebraska also is a big scheduling advantage for Wisconsin. 

PREVIOUS CONFERENCE PREVIEWS: ACC