2013 NFL Preview: AFC EAST
By Michael Schneid
We begin our 2013 NFL Preview with the AFC East.
With every team, we will look at a non-first round pick that is likely to have the biggest impact in 2013. First round picks should have a big impact, so we will look beyond that. Also breakout players and fantasy impact players, for those of you into that kind of thing. We evaluate the best and worst moves of the off-season for each team and preview one of the training camp battles to watch.
Coaching Shuffle: Former Syracuse HC Doug Marrone replaces Chan Gailey
Gailey was terrible. His offense was unimaginative, his defense always struggled, and players never seemed to buy into whatever Gailey was selling them. Marrone is a hard-nosed,
Former Jets DC Mike Pettine joins Marrone to coach the defense and Nathanial Hackett, Marrone's OC at Syracuse will also follow him.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: WR Robert Woods
Woods out of USC, will play opposite Stevie Johnson. Bills have been looking for a second impact WR for a long time. And with Donald Jones and David Nelson gone, Woods will see the field a lot immediately. Woods had 26 TDs the last two seasons at USC
Breakout Player(s): CB Stephen Gilmore
Scouts always say a player really grows between his rookie and second season. Gilmore started all 16 games as a rookie and has a chance to develop into a pro-bowl corner. He needs to improve his consistency in coverage.
Fantasy Impact Player: RB CJ Spiller
Spiller was 8th in fantasy points among running backs in 2012. Former head coach Chan Gailey used Spiller primarily as a change of pace back, splitting carries with Fred Jackson. Spiller is a homerun threat every time he touches the ball. It took a Fred Jackson injury for Spiller to finally touch the ball more than 15 times a game and he certainly made the most of his opportunities. While Jackson will still get carries and receptions, Spiller will enter camp as the number one back. And with a new offense that may include a dual threat QB, the running game will be a very strong emphasis in Buffalo, a very cold weather city.
Best Off-Season Move: Upgrading the Offense
The best off-season move was probably firing Chan Gailey, which is ironic since he is an “offensive guy.” The Bills drafted QB EJ Manuel 15th overall, a dual threat QB. They added WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin in the draft and have two very good healthy RBs in CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. Drafting a QB in the first round is a long time coming for the Bills, who have had struggled at the position for years. With Manuel, Spiller, and Woods the future is very bright for Buffalo. At least on the offensive side of the ball.
Worst Off-Season Move: Failing to lock up Jarius Byrd long term
Buffalo slapped Byrd with the franchise tag but were unable to reach a long term deal. Which means Byrd becomes a free agent again in 2014 and the Bills face the same issue all over - franchise him again, pay him, or let him walk. Byrd tied for 7th with 5 interceptions.
Training Camp Battles: EJ Manuel vs Kevin Kolb
This shouldn't be much of a battle. Manuel was drafted 15th overall and Kolb was signed cheap after being released by the Cardinals for being a bust with them. If Kolb wins the competition it will be because Manuel hasn't fully learned the playbook and isn't ready. Kolb was also injury prone in Arizona, playing just 15 games the last two seasons. Assuming Manuel can run the offense in pre-season games, he will do so Week 1.
New England Patriots
We begin our 2013 NFL Preview with the AFC East.
With every team, we will look at a non-first round pick that is likely to have the biggest impact in 2013. First round picks should have a big impact, so we will look beyond that. Also breakout players and fantasy impact players, for those of you into that kind of thing. We evaluate the best and worst moves of the off-season for each team and preview one of the training camp battles to watch.
Buffalo Bills
Coaching Shuffle: Former Syracuse HC Doug Marrone replaces Chan Gailey
Gailey was terrible. His offense was unimaginative, his defense always struggled, and players never seemed to buy into whatever Gailey was selling them. Marrone is a hard-nosed,
Former Jets DC Mike Pettine joins Marrone to coach the defense and Nathanial Hackett, Marrone's OC at Syracuse will also follow him.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: WR Robert Woods
Woods out of USC, will play opposite Stevie Johnson. Bills have been looking for a second impact WR for a long time. And with Donald Jones and David Nelson gone, Woods will see the field a lot immediately. Woods had 26 TDs the last two seasons at USC
Breakout Player(s): CB Stephen Gilmore
Scouts always say a player really grows between his rookie and second season. Gilmore started all 16 games as a rookie and has a chance to develop into a pro-bowl corner. He needs to improve his consistency in coverage.
Fantasy Impact Player: RB CJ Spiller
Spiller was 8th in fantasy points among running backs in 2012. Former head coach Chan Gailey used Spiller primarily as a change of pace back, splitting carries with Fred Jackson. Spiller is a homerun threat every time he touches the ball. It took a Fred Jackson injury for Spiller to finally touch the ball more than 15 times a game and he certainly made the most of his opportunities. While Jackson will still get carries and receptions, Spiller will enter camp as the number one back. And with a new offense that may include a dual threat QB, the running game will be a very strong emphasis in Buffalo, a very cold weather city.
Best Off-Season Move: Upgrading the Offense
The best off-season move was probably firing Chan Gailey, which is ironic since he is an “offensive guy.” The Bills drafted QB EJ Manuel 15th overall, a dual threat QB. They added WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin in the draft and have two very good healthy RBs in CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. Drafting a QB in the first round is a long time coming for the Bills, who have had struggled at the position for years. With Manuel, Spiller, and Woods the future is very bright for Buffalo. At least on the offensive side of the ball.
Worst Off-Season Move: Failing to lock up Jarius Byrd long term
Buffalo slapped Byrd with the franchise tag but were unable to reach a long term deal. Which means Byrd becomes a free agent again in 2014 and the Bills face the same issue all over - franchise him again, pay him, or let him walk. Byrd tied for 7th with 5 interceptions.
Training Camp Battles: EJ Manuel vs Kevin Kolb
This shouldn't be much of a battle. Manuel was drafted 15th overall and Kolb was signed cheap after being released by the Cardinals for being a bust with them. If Kolb wins the competition it will be because Manuel hasn't fully learned the playbook and isn't ready. Kolb was also injury prone in Arizona, playing just 15 games the last two seasons. Assuming Manuel can run the offense in pre-season games, he will do so Week 1.
Miami Dolphins
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: CB Jamar Taylor (2nd round)
Taylor will compete with Richard Marshall in training camp to start across from free agent signee Brent Grimes. But the Boise State corner is a playmaker who should see plenty of action regardless of if he starts.
Breakout Player(s): RB Lamar Miller
He has the same kind of home run ability that Reggie Bush has. Some scouts say Miller is one of the fastest running backs they hve seen. The former Miami Hurricane has been working out with Frank Gore this off-season, which can only help him even further in the long run.
Fantasy Impact Player: TE Dustin Keller
Keller was one of the Dolphins many off-season acquisitions. After not missing a game his first four season, Keller only played 8 games in 2012. But with the Jets offense struggling most of the season, Keller probably wouldn’t have put up huge numbers anyways. Keller had career highs in 2011 with 815 yards and 5 TDs and with a much more competent QB, should have a chance to get close to those numbers. Tight ends are known as young QBs biggest security blanket so expect Ryan Tannehill and Keller to work well together.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing WR Mike Wallace
Miami has long lacked a go-to deep threat wide receiver. Brian Hartline emerged last year as a strong option, and re-signed with Miami. But the Dolphins undoubtedly needed someone else too which is why on the first day of free agency they went all in on pursuing Wallace. Wallace has ecliped 1000+ yards in two of his four seasons, and at least 8 TDs the last three years. Wallace will help speed up the development of Ryan Tannehill.
Worst Off-Season Move: Not upgrading LT
The Dolphins made a lot of moves this off-season. They upgraded at WR, they let Reggie Bush walk, they upgraded their linebackers. But one area they didnt touch was OL. Former #1 pick Jake Long is gone. And they failed to complete a trade for KC LT Brandon Albert. So second year OT Jonathan Martin will move from right tackle to left this season to protect Ryan Tannehill. Tyson Clabo was sign to be RT. After making many moves and spending a lot of money, the team should have ponied up the cash and draft pick(s) to acquire Albert, a proven, Pro-Bowl LT, as opposed to rolling the dice with someone who struggled as a rookie.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: CB Jamar Taylor (2nd round)
Taylor will compete with Richard Marshall in training camp to start across from free agent signee Brent Grimes. But the Boise State corner is a playmaker who should see plenty of action regardless of if he starts.
Breakout Player(s): RB Lamar Miller
He has the same kind of home run ability that Reggie Bush has. Some scouts say Miller is one of the fastest running backs they hve seen. The former Miami Hurricane has been working out with Frank Gore this off-season, which can only help him even further in the long run.
Fantasy Impact Player: TE Dustin Keller
Keller was one of the Dolphins many off-season acquisitions. After not missing a game his first four season, Keller only played 8 games in 2012. But with the Jets offense struggling most of the season, Keller probably wouldn’t have put up huge numbers anyways. Keller had career highs in 2011 with 815 yards and 5 TDs and with a much more competent QB, should have a chance to get close to those numbers. Tight ends are known as young QBs biggest security blanket so expect Ryan Tannehill and Keller to work well together.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing WR Mike Wallace
Miami has long lacked a go-to deep threat wide receiver. Brian Hartline emerged last year as a strong option, and re-signed with Miami. But the Dolphins undoubtedly needed someone else too which is why on the first day of free agency they went all in on pursuing Wallace. Wallace has ecliped 1000+ yards in two of his four seasons, and at least 8 TDs the last three years. Wallace will help speed up the development of Ryan Tannehill.
Worst Off-Season Move: Not upgrading LT
The Dolphins made a lot of moves this off-season. They upgraded at WR, they let Reggie Bush walk, they upgraded their linebackers. But one area they didnt touch was OL. Former #1 pick Jake Long is gone. And they failed to complete a trade for KC LT Brandon Albert. So second year OT Jonathan Martin will move from right tackle to left this season to protect Ryan Tannehill. Tyson Clabo was sign to be RT. After making many moves and spending a lot of money, the team should have ponied up the cash and draft pick(s) to acquire Albert, a proven, Pro-Bowl LT, as opposed to rolling the dice with someone who struggled as a rookie.
Training Camp Battles: K- Dan Carpenter vs. Caleb Sturgis
The Dolphins drafted Dan Sturgis in the fifth round. And we expect the former Gators kicker to unseat Dan Carpenter for the kicking job. Sturgis was 85% on field goals the last two years for one of college's best teams. Carpenter was only 81%.
The Dolphins drafted Dan Sturgis in the fifth round. And we expect the former Gators kicker to unseat Dan Carpenter for the kicking job. Sturgis was 85% on field goals the last two years for one of college's best teams. Carpenter was only 81%.
New England Patriots
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: CB Logan Ryan and S
Duron Harmon (3rd Rounders)
New England used two 3rd round picks on Rutgers secondary players. Patriots’ secondary has been their biggest weakness the last few years so continuing to plug those holes is a key for their defense.
Breakout Player(s): RB Shane Vereen
Steven Ridley broke out last season and was among the top running backs statistically. The Patriots always rotate backs and with a depleted receiving corps could use Vereen out of the backfield or perhaps in the slot as a receiver. Also with Danny Woodhead gone, there are only two backs to split carries and receptions as opposed to three. And Vereen is considered a better receiver than Ridley. Don’t expect Vereen to put up top 10 RB numbers, but he will be a factor in the Patriots’ offense in 2013.
Fantasy Impact Player: QB Tom Brady
Who else? If you are in a PPR league, you may want to consider Danny Amendola but Brady is the only sure thing on the Pats. Despite losing some of his top weapons from a year ago (Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker) Brady is pretty much a lock for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing WR Danny Amendola
With Welker gone, New England signed a player very similar in Danny Amendola. The knock on him is that he is injury prone. He played 11 games last year and had just 3 TDs and caught 63 passes. In comparison, Welker caught 118 passes and 6 TD and has missed THREE total games in his 8-year career. He has also gone over 1000 yards 5 times, including 1,569 in 2011 and 1354 in 2012. Amendola's career high was in 2010 with 689 yards. He also went over 600 yards in 2012. Expect Amendola to get a lot of forced passes early as Belichik tries to prove a point on this issue. But if Welker has the same success in Denver that he had in New England, and Amendola misses games due to injury, Belichik's "genius" reputation may take a hit.
Worst Off-Season Move: Allowing WR Wes Welker to leave
While the Pats did sign Amendola, they didn't do much else to improve their WRs. With Rob Gronkowski's status up in the air due to injury and Aaron Hernandez released, Tom Brady will need to work his magic and develop some new stars in 2013. Welker will join a group of WRs in Denver that includes Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas and of course a very similar QB, Peyton Manning.
Training Camp Battles: TE – Jake Ballard vs. Michael Hoomanawanui vs. Daniel Fells
Patriots tight ends have gotten a ton of attention the last few seasons. With Aaron Hernandez gone and Rob Gronkowski possibly starting the season on the PUP list, and Wes Welker gone, someone will have a big opportunity for catches and TDs. Ballard missed the 2012 season with a leg injury. Hoomanawanui caught just 5 passes in 14 games while Fells had 4 receptions in 13 games. New England better hope Gronk returns quickly and is healthy for close to 16 games.
New England used two 3rd round picks on Rutgers secondary players. Patriots’ secondary has been their biggest weakness the last few years so continuing to plug those holes is a key for their defense.
Breakout Player(s): RB Shane Vereen
Steven Ridley broke out last season and was among the top running backs statistically. The Patriots always rotate backs and with a depleted receiving corps could use Vereen out of the backfield or perhaps in the slot as a receiver. Also with Danny Woodhead gone, there are only two backs to split carries and receptions as opposed to three. And Vereen is considered a better receiver than Ridley. Don’t expect Vereen to put up top 10 RB numbers, but he will be a factor in the Patriots’ offense in 2013.
Fantasy Impact Player: QB Tom Brady
Who else? If you are in a PPR league, you may want to consider Danny Amendola but Brady is the only sure thing on the Pats. Despite losing some of his top weapons from a year ago (Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker) Brady is pretty much a lock for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing WR Danny Amendola
With Welker gone, New England signed a player very similar in Danny Amendola. The knock on him is that he is injury prone. He played 11 games last year and had just 3 TDs and caught 63 passes. In comparison, Welker caught 118 passes and 6 TD and has missed THREE total games in his 8-year career. He has also gone over 1000 yards 5 times, including 1,569 in 2011 and 1354 in 2012. Amendola's career high was in 2010 with 689 yards. He also went over 600 yards in 2012. Expect Amendola to get a lot of forced passes early as Belichik tries to prove a point on this issue. But if Welker has the same success in Denver that he had in New England, and Amendola misses games due to injury, Belichik's "genius" reputation may take a hit.
Worst Off-Season Move: Allowing WR Wes Welker to leave
While the Pats did sign Amendola, they didn't do much else to improve their WRs. With Rob Gronkowski's status up in the air due to injury and Aaron Hernandez released, Tom Brady will need to work his magic and develop some new stars in 2013. Welker will join a group of WRs in Denver that includes Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas and of course a very similar QB, Peyton Manning.
Training Camp Battles: TE – Jake Ballard vs. Michael Hoomanawanui vs. Daniel Fells
Patriots tight ends have gotten a ton of attention the last few seasons. With Aaron Hernandez gone and Rob Gronkowski possibly starting the season on the PUP list, and Wes Welker gone, someone will have a big opportunity for catches and TDs. Ballard missed the 2012 season with a leg injury. Hoomanawanui caught just 5 passes in 14 games while Fells had 4 receptions in 13 games. New England better hope Gronk returns quickly and is healthy for close to 16 games.
New York Jets
Coaching Shuffle: New OC Marty Mornhinweg, New DC Dennis Thurman
Rex Ryan kept his job but no doubt enters 2013 on the hot seat. The Jets fired Tony Sparano after one, pretty miserable season offensively. DC Mike Pettine was allowed to leave when his contract expired so the Jets promoted DB coach Dennis Thurman to the role. Offensively, Mornhinweg won't be saddled with Tim Tebow but he will be forced to play either Mark Sanchez or Geno Smith. The Jets are light on running backs and wide receivers too so he will have his work cut out for him.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: OG Brian Winters (3rd round)
Geno Smith was certainly an option here but he will be engaged in a training camp battle with Sanchez and it is certainly possible Sanchez begins the season as Jets starter. Brian Winters is likely to start or at least compete to start.
Breakout Player(s): RB Chris Ivory
Ivory has been stuck low on the depth chart of RBs in New Orleans for years. Behind Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush Ivory rarely saw action unless there were multiple injuries. With the Jets, he will have a great chance to be the number one guy, splitting carries with Bilal Powell and Mike Goodson. Ivory has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry, which would have ranked him 6th if he did that consistently throughout the 2012 season. If the Jets O-line is improved, Ivory can find some holes to run wild consistently.
Fantasy Impact Player: Jets Defense
The Jets defense finished in the top half of the league in fantasy points in 2012. With a very shaky QB situation, WR Santonio Holmes still recovery from a foot injury, and the running back situation up for grabs, there are not a whole lot of offensive players worth grabbing. But Rex Ryan’s defense is also a sure thing. And after using two first round picks on defense and making a few tweaks in free agency, the Jets defense should continue to be in the top half of the league.
Best Off-Season Move: Drafting Dee Milliner and Sheldon Richardson
The Jets had very limited resources to go sign free agents. Chris Ivory was their best move but rather than be repetitive, let's look at the Jets draft. Because of their limited funds, they had to nail their draft and they did. They traded Darrelle Revis, which was the right move and immediately drafted his replacement. CB Dee Milliner from Alabama will start opposite Antonio Cromartie. With the first rounder acquired for Revis, the Jets took Sheldon Richardson, a big DT from Missouri. Richardson will likely be moved to the outside in the Jets 3-4 scheme and be an important part of the Jets pass rush.
Worst Off-Season Move: Retaining Rex Ryan, Drafting Geno Smith
I love Rex. I love his boldness and his attitude. I am also a fan of Geno Smith, especially in the second round. But the Jets are a team in transition. If Smith plays as a rookie, his development will be hurt by a weak receiving group and potentially poor ground game and offense line.
Training Camp Battles: QB - Geno Smith vs. Mark Sanchez
Mark Sanchez was awful in 2012 and the Jets refused to bench him because their only viable backup was Tim Tebow. Behind him was Greg McElroy who did lead the Jets to a game winning TD in December over the Cardinals. After hiring a new GM and revamping the front office, the Jets have finally acknowledged Sanchez's struggles by drafting a guy many expected to be the first QB off the board, Geno Smith. Smith had 42 TDs and 6 INTs in his senior season at West Virginia. He had 21 INTs in his four years at West Va while Mark Sanchez had 18 INTs in 2012 for the Jets.
Coaching Shuffle: New OC Marty Mornhinweg, New DC Dennis Thurman
Rex Ryan kept his job but no doubt enters 2013 on the hot seat. The Jets fired Tony Sparano after one, pretty miserable season offensively. DC Mike Pettine was allowed to leave when his contract expired so the Jets promoted DB coach Dennis Thurman to the role. Offensively, Mornhinweg won't be saddled with Tim Tebow but he will be forced to play either Mark Sanchez or Geno Smith. The Jets are light on running backs and wide receivers too so he will have his work cut out for him.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: OG Brian Winters (3rd round)
Geno Smith was certainly an option here but he will be engaged in a training camp battle with Sanchez and it is certainly possible Sanchez begins the season as Jets starter. Brian Winters is likely to start or at least compete to start.
Breakout Player(s): RB Chris Ivory
Ivory has been stuck low on the depth chart of RBs in New Orleans for years. Behind Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush Ivory rarely saw action unless there were multiple injuries. With the Jets, he will have a great chance to be the number one guy, splitting carries with Bilal Powell and Mike Goodson. Ivory has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry, which would have ranked him 6th if he did that consistently throughout the 2012 season. If the Jets O-line is improved, Ivory can find some holes to run wild consistently.
Fantasy Impact Player: Jets Defense
The Jets defense finished in the top half of the league in fantasy points in 2012. With a very shaky QB situation, WR Santonio Holmes still recovery from a foot injury, and the running back situation up for grabs, there are not a whole lot of offensive players worth grabbing. But Rex Ryan’s defense is also a sure thing. And after using two first round picks on defense and making a few tweaks in free agency, the Jets defense should continue to be in the top half of the league.
Best Off-Season Move: Drafting Dee Milliner and Sheldon Richardson
The Jets had very limited resources to go sign free agents. Chris Ivory was their best move but rather than be repetitive, let's look at the Jets draft. Because of their limited funds, they had to nail their draft and they did. They traded Darrelle Revis, which was the right move and immediately drafted his replacement. CB Dee Milliner from Alabama will start opposite Antonio Cromartie. With the first rounder acquired for Revis, the Jets took Sheldon Richardson, a big DT from Missouri. Richardson will likely be moved to the outside in the Jets 3-4 scheme and be an important part of the Jets pass rush.
Worst Off-Season Move: Retaining Rex Ryan, Drafting Geno Smith
I love Rex. I love his boldness and his attitude. I am also a fan of Geno Smith, especially in the second round. But the Jets are a team in transition. If Smith plays as a rookie, his development will be hurt by a weak receiving group and potentially poor ground game and offense line.
Training Camp Battles: QB - Geno Smith vs. Mark Sanchez
Mark Sanchez was awful in 2012 and the Jets refused to bench him because their only viable backup was Tim Tebow. Behind him was Greg McElroy who did lead the Jets to a game winning TD in December over the Cardinals. After hiring a new GM and revamping the front office, the Jets have finally acknowledged Sanchez's struggles by drafting a guy many expected to be the first QB off the board, Geno Smith. Smith had 42 TDs and 6 INTs in his senior season at West Virginia. He had 21 INTs in his four years at West Va while Mark Sanchez had 18 INTs in 2012 for the Jets.
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