2013 NFL Preview: AFC North
By Michael Schneid
We continue our 2013 NFL Preview with the AFC North.
See our AFC EAST Preview.
With every team, we will look at a non-first round pick that is likely to have the biggest impact in 2013. First round picks should have a big impact, so we will look beyond that. Also breakout players and fantasy impact players, for those of you into that kind of thing. We evaluate the best and worst moves of the off-season for each team and preview one of the training camp battles to watch.
See our AFC EAST Preview.
With every team, we will look at a non-first round pick that is likely to have the biggest impact in 2013. First round picks should have a big impact, so we will look beyond that. Also breakout players and fantasy impact players, for those of you into that kind of thing. We evaluate the best and worst moves of the off-season for each team and preview one of the training camp battles to watch.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: Ricky Wagner (4th round)
Ravens had a very good off-season, replacing departing players. Arthur Brown or John Simon could have been options here but we went with Wagner. Wagner was a four-year starter at OT for Wisconsin, who has always produced an excellent Offensive Line. With LT Bryant McKinnie getting up there in age, Baltimore can bring Wagner along slowly and insert him when the time is right.
Breakout Player(s): LB Courtney Upshaw
With Ray Lewis, Dannell Ellerbe, and Paul Kruger all gone, last year’s second round pick (35th overall) is in prime position to take over and pick up the slack left behind by those three. Upshaw had a quiet rookie season and was banged up and overweight during OTAs last summer. But now, fully healthy and in shape, Upshaw has looked good during team workouts and will be ready to keep Baltimore’s defensive reputation intact.
Fantasy Impact Player: WR Torrey Smith
We initially had Dennis Pitta here, but a hip injury could keep him out for the season. So with two of the top three receiving options from a year ago (Pitta and Anquan Boldin) gone, more burden will fall on Torrey Smith, who had a breakout year in 2012. 49 catches, 855 yards, and 8 TDs, all numbers that should increase without some other guys present to steal the workload.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing Elvis Dumervil and Michael Huff
They lost Paul Kruger and Ed Reed and these, cheaper, and in Huff's case younger, replacements are exactly what made the Ravens off-season a success. Dumervil was an All-Pro DE with Denver but a fax machine issue led to his release.
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing Joe Flacco to a $120 Million Contract
Flacco is a pretty good QB, who had an unbelievable post-season. But if a few things had gone differently, he might have gotten half the money he did. If Ray Rice doesn't convert the now famous 4th and 27 against the Chargers, if Jacoby Jones doesn't catch that remarkable pass in the second round against the Broncos, even if 49ers complete their comeback. If a few things went different and the Ravens do not win or even make the Super Bowl, Flacco likely doesn’t get paid over $100 million.
Training Camp Battles: CB – Jimmy Smith vs. Corey Graham
Cary Williams signed with the Eagles so the Ravens need a new starter opposite Lardarius Webb. Smith was a first round pick in 2011 and Graham signed with the Ravens last year and started 8 games for an injured Webb. With Smith entering his third season, it’s time for him to step up but Graham provides the Ravens with valuable starting experience. Smith, Graham, and Webb give the Ravens a solid trio of cornerbacks.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: Ricky Wagner (4th round)
Ravens had a very good off-season, replacing departing players. Arthur Brown or John Simon could have been options here but we went with Wagner. Wagner was a four-year starter at OT for Wisconsin, who has always produced an excellent Offensive Line. With LT Bryant McKinnie getting up there in age, Baltimore can bring Wagner along slowly and insert him when the time is right.
Breakout Player(s): LB Courtney Upshaw
With Ray Lewis, Dannell Ellerbe, and Paul Kruger all gone, last year’s second round pick (35th overall) is in prime position to take over and pick up the slack left behind by those three. Upshaw had a quiet rookie season and was banged up and overweight during OTAs last summer. But now, fully healthy and in shape, Upshaw has looked good during team workouts and will be ready to keep Baltimore’s defensive reputation intact.
Fantasy Impact Player: WR Torrey Smith
We initially had Dennis Pitta here, but a hip injury could keep him out for the season. So with two of the top three receiving options from a year ago (Pitta and Anquan Boldin) gone, more burden will fall on Torrey Smith, who had a breakout year in 2012. 49 catches, 855 yards, and 8 TDs, all numbers that should increase without some other guys present to steal the workload.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing Elvis Dumervil and Michael Huff
They lost Paul Kruger and Ed Reed and these, cheaper, and in Huff's case younger, replacements are exactly what made the Ravens off-season a success. Dumervil was an All-Pro DE with Denver but a fax machine issue led to his release.
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing Joe Flacco to a $120 Million Contract
Flacco is a pretty good QB, who had an unbelievable post-season. But if a few things had gone differently, he might have gotten half the money he did. If Ray Rice doesn't convert the now famous 4th and 27 against the Chargers, if Jacoby Jones doesn't catch that remarkable pass in the second round against the Broncos, even if 49ers complete their comeback. If a few things went different and the Ravens do not win or even make the Super Bowl, Flacco likely doesn’t get paid over $100 million.
Training Camp Battles: CB – Jimmy Smith vs. Corey Graham
Cary Williams signed with the Eagles so the Ravens need a new starter opposite Lardarius Webb. Smith was a first round pick in 2011 and Graham signed with the Ravens last year and started 8 games for an injured Webb. With Smith entering his third season, it’s time for him to step up but Graham provides the Ravens with valuable starting experience. Smith, Graham, and Webb give the Ravens a solid trio of cornerbacks.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Breakout Player(s): DE Carlos Dunlap
Bengals defense has been their strength the last few years. Dunlap just signed a new 6 year extension but don’t expect him to be any less motivated. Playing across from Michael Johnson helps. Dunlap had 6 sacks in 2012 and he could continue to improve and have Pro-Bowl season in 2013.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: Giovani Bernard (2nd round)
Bernard was the first running back drafted, a surprise to some people. He is quick and elusive, quite the opposite of Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis, whom he will split carries with. Bernard can also catch passes out of the backfield and provides QB Andy Dalton and OC Jay Gruden with another valuable weapon.
Fantasy Impact Player: WR AJ Green
AJ Green had the 4th most fantasy points for WRs in 2012. Entering his third season, Green should be even better and a 1350 yards, 11 TD season.
Best Off-Season Move: Re-Signing LT Andre Smith
Smith’s career got off to a slow start. He was a contract holdout in his rookie season and had issues with weight and injuries early on. But he’s been a Pro-Bowl LT the last couple seasons and it was important for the Bengals to keep continuity on offense with Andy Dalton and Smith protecting him.
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing Josh Johnson and John Skelton as backup QBs
Andy Dalton is entrenched as the starting QB. But as we have learned in the NFL, anything can happen and you always need to be prepared. Bruce Gradkowski, last year’s backup, left as a free agent to Pittsburgh. If Dalton misses any time, Johnson and Skelton may not be the most reliable options for Cincy.
Training Camp Battles: WR Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones
In 2012 the Bengals drafted Sanu in the third round and Jones in the fifth. In the 2013 draft the Bengals drafted another RB and TE which means their one area of weakness offensively is a second WR across from AJ Green. Sanu and/or Jones should step up and grab the reigns of the second starting spot. Jones had 18 catches for 209 yards with no touchdowns starting the final 6 games of 2012. Sanu had just 16 catches, 154 yards in 9 games. However, Sanu caught 4 TDs and also threw a 73 yard TD in week 3. Whichever player wins the WR competition has a chance to breakout in 2013.
Breakout Player(s): DE Carlos Dunlap
Bengals defense has been their strength the last few years. Dunlap just signed a new 6 year extension but don’t expect him to be any less motivated. Playing across from Michael Johnson helps. Dunlap had 6 sacks in 2012 and he could continue to improve and have Pro-Bowl season in 2013.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: Giovani Bernard (2nd round)
Bernard was the first running back drafted, a surprise to some people. He is quick and elusive, quite the opposite of Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis, whom he will split carries with. Bernard can also catch passes out of the backfield and provides QB Andy Dalton and OC Jay Gruden with another valuable weapon.
Fantasy Impact Player: WR AJ Green
AJ Green had the 4th most fantasy points for WRs in 2012. Entering his third season, Green should be even better and a 1350 yards, 11 TD season.
Best Off-Season Move: Re-Signing LT Andre Smith
Smith’s career got off to a slow start. He was a contract holdout in his rookie season and had issues with weight and injuries early on. But he’s been a Pro-Bowl LT the last couple seasons and it was important for the Bengals to keep continuity on offense with Andy Dalton and Smith protecting him.
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing Josh Johnson and John Skelton as backup QBs
Andy Dalton is entrenched as the starting QB. But as we have learned in the NFL, anything can happen and you always need to be prepared. Bruce Gradkowski, last year’s backup, left as a free agent to Pittsburgh. If Dalton misses any time, Johnson and Skelton may not be the most reliable options for Cincy.
Training Camp Battles: WR Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones
In 2012 the Bengals drafted Sanu in the third round and Jones in the fifth. In the 2013 draft the Bengals drafted another RB and TE which means their one area of weakness offensively is a second WR across from AJ Green. Sanu and/or Jones should step up and grab the reigns of the second starting spot. Jones had 18 catches for 209 yards with no touchdowns starting the final 6 games of 2012. Sanu had just 16 catches, 154 yards in 9 games. However, Sanu caught 4 TDs and also threw a 73 yard TD in week 3. Whichever player wins the WR competition has a chance to breakout in 2013.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Burning Question: The Browns hired Panthers OC Rob Chudzinski as their head coach. On top of him, they hired two top notch coordinators. Norv Turner will run the offense and Ray Horton the defense. Horton was responsible for turning around the Cardinals defense the last couple seasons and vaulting them into the top of the league. The Browns offense has been bad the last few years and Turner, despite his faults as a head coach, can mentor the Browns QBs and put the WRs and RBs in a position to succeed. Ironically, Chudzinski was the OC in San Diego under Norv Turner. So they have history with one another.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: CB Leon McFadden (3rd round)
The Browns only had five total draft picks due to trades and last year's supplemental draft. McFadden was the team's second pick after Barkevious Mingo. He should have a chance to compete for playing time if not the starting job opposite Joe Haden.
Breakout Player(s): WR Josh Gordon
Gordon averaged 16 yards per catch in 2012. Gordon really began to break through in week 11 against the Cowboys. In the first 9 games, Gordon only caught 3 or less passes. His catches per game increase in the final 7 games. Gordon will be suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy but when he returns, he will be the Browns #1 WR and go-to deep threat.
Fantasy Impact Player: RB Trent Richardson
In standard leagues, Richardson is probably a first round pick.. With a weak passing game, the Browns will rely heavily on Richardson and the run. Richardson finished 9th in fantasy points among all running backs.
Best Off-Season Move: Improving their pass rush
The Browns were 25th in opponent’s pass yards in 2012. It is very important that they put pressure on the QB. Signing Paul Kruger from the Ravens and drafting Barkevious Mingo out of LSU are very good moves in the right direction. Ray Horton’s defense is known for blitzing and getting to the QB. Horton will have to utilize his new toys with his other players to put them in the best position to succeed.
Worst Off-Season Move: Not upgrading QB
I know they took Brandon Weeden in the first round last season, but Weeden is now 29 and entering the twilight of his career.... The Browns signed Jason Campbell as a backup and he could be a serviceable starter but with a new GM and coach in place, Cleveland should have simply wiped the slate clean and rebuilt the QB position from scratch.
Training Camp Battles: WR – Davone Bess, Greg Little, Jordan Norwood, Travis Benjamin, David Nelson
As mentioned, Gordon is suspended the first four games. Greg Little is likely to be the starter opposite of Gordon but with him out, everyone will have a chance to compete for two starting jobs in training camp. Bess and Nelson are veterans from the Dolphins and Bills, respectively. Norwood and Benjamin are young receivers recently drafted by the Browns. When Gordon rotates, there may not be room for 6 receivers to get playing time so training camp competition will be big.
Burning Question: The Browns hired Panthers OC Rob Chudzinski as their head coach. On top of him, they hired two top notch coordinators. Norv Turner will run the offense and Ray Horton the defense. Horton was responsible for turning around the Cardinals defense the last couple seasons and vaulting them into the top of the league. The Browns offense has been bad the last few years and Turner, despite his faults as a head coach, can mentor the Browns QBs and put the WRs and RBs in a position to succeed. Ironically, Chudzinski was the OC in San Diego under Norv Turner. So they have history with one another.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: CB Leon McFadden (3rd round)
The Browns only had five total draft picks due to trades and last year's supplemental draft. McFadden was the team's second pick after Barkevious Mingo. He should have a chance to compete for playing time if not the starting job opposite Joe Haden.
Breakout Player(s): WR Josh Gordon
Gordon averaged 16 yards per catch in 2012. Gordon really began to break through in week 11 against the Cowboys. In the first 9 games, Gordon only caught 3 or less passes. His catches per game increase in the final 7 games. Gordon will be suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy but when he returns, he will be the Browns #1 WR and go-to deep threat.
Fantasy Impact Player: RB Trent Richardson
In standard leagues, Richardson is probably a first round pick.. With a weak passing game, the Browns will rely heavily on Richardson and the run. Richardson finished 9th in fantasy points among all running backs.
Best Off-Season Move: Improving their pass rush
The Browns were 25th in opponent’s pass yards in 2012. It is very important that they put pressure on the QB. Signing Paul Kruger from the Ravens and drafting Barkevious Mingo out of LSU are very good moves in the right direction. Ray Horton’s defense is known for blitzing and getting to the QB. Horton will have to utilize his new toys with his other players to put them in the best position to succeed.
Worst Off-Season Move: Not upgrading QB
I know they took Brandon Weeden in the first round last season, but Weeden is now 29 and entering the twilight of his career.... The Browns signed Jason Campbell as a backup and he could be a serviceable starter but with a new GM and coach in place, Cleveland should have simply wiped the slate clean and rebuilt the QB position from scratch.
Training Camp Battles: WR – Davone Bess, Greg Little, Jordan Norwood, Travis Benjamin, David Nelson
As mentioned, Gordon is suspended the first four games. Greg Little is likely to be the starter opposite of Gordon but with him out, everyone will have a chance to compete for two starting jobs in training camp. Bess and Nelson are veterans from the Dolphins and Bills, respectively. Norwood and Benjamin are young receivers recently drafted by the Browns. When Gordon rotates, there may not be room for 6 receivers to get playing time so training camp competition will be big.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: RB Le'Veon Bell (2nd round), WR Markus Wheaton (3rd round)
We are cheating and pick two playoffs, both of whom are the future of the Steelers offense. Bell will compete with Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman for carries and should eventually take over as a workhorse back, like he was at Michigan State. Steelers have a void at WR with Mike Wallace gone and Emmanuel Sanders is an unrestricted free agent at the end of 2013 season, so Wheaton can develop in-house as his future replacement and possibly start in 2014 across from Antonio Brown.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: RB Le'Veon Bell (2nd round), WR Markus Wheaton (3rd round)
We are cheating and pick two playoffs, both of whom are the future of the Steelers offense. Bell will compete with Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman for carries and should eventually take over as a workhorse back, like he was at Michigan State. Steelers have a void at WR with Mike Wallace gone and Emmanuel Sanders is an unrestricted free agent at the end of 2013 season, so Wheaton can develop in-house as his future replacement and possibly start in 2014 across from Antonio Brown.
Breakout Player(s): LB Jason Worlids
No rookie has started on the Steelers defense since Dick LeBeau became defensive coordinator in 2004. So Jarvis Jones will likely be a rotational player for 2013 which gives Worlids an opportunity to make an impact.
Fantasy Impact Player: WR Antonio Brown
With Mike Wallace gone, Brown becomes the #1 receiver for Ben Roethlisberger. The running game struggled last season and the focus will likely remain on the passing game on offense. Brown had 787 yards and 5 TDs, numbers should increase with his ascension to number one on the depth chart.
Best Off-Season Move: Upgrading backup QB position
The Steelers signed former Bengals QB Bruce Gradkowski and drafted Landry Jones out of Oklahoma in the 4th round. Big Ben is injury prone and the Steelers have often been forced to play Charlie Batch or Byron Leftwich. Having better insurance behind Big Ben should help the Steelers in case something happens to him in 2013.
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing Plaxico Burress
With Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jericho Cotchery, Markus Wheaton the top 4 WRs, Burress has no business being any higher than 5th on the depth chart. And with Sanders a free agent in 2014, the Steelers are better off letting younger receivers get the opportunities. Burress has an up-hill battle to simply make the team but the Steelers would have been better off letting young guys like Justin Brown or Derek Moye compete for the roster spot that Burress likely will not occupy.
Training Camp Battles: RBs- Le’Veon Bell, Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman, Larod Stephens-Howling
The Steelers finished 26th in rushing yards in 2012. Very un-Steelers like numbers. Dwyer and Redman combined for just over 1000 yards and 4 TD while also splitting carries with Rashard Mendenhall. Le’Veon Bell was drafted in the second round and is the future at the running back position. Dwyer and Redman are experienced vets who could start out the season getting more carries. Stephens-Howling is a change of pace back. While Dwyer and Redman combined for 4 TDs, Stephens-Howling had 4 on his own in 2012. Seeing who leads the team in carries will be a battle to watch all season.
See our AFC EAST Preview.
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