2013 NFL Preview: AFC SOUTH
By Michael Schneid
We continue our 2013 NFL Preview with the AFC South
With every team, we will look at a non-first round pick that is likely to have the biggest impact in 2013. First round picks should have a big impact, so we will look beyond that. Also breakout players and fantasy impact players, for those of you into that kind of thing. We evaluate the best and worst moves of the off-season for each team and preview one of the training camp battles to watch.
Previous NFL Previews:
HOUSTON TEXANS
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: DJ Swearinger S (2nd round)
We discuss Ed Reed's impact below but Swearinger has a chance to learn from the future Hall of Famer and play behind him and next to him in certain defensive packages. Safety and secondary was one of the Texans biggest weaknesses in 2012 so they upgraded safety in the second round.
Breakout Player(s): OLB Whitney Mercilus
Second year player will no longer split time with Connor Barwin. Mercilus had 6 sacks in 2012 (second among rookies) but was over shadowed by JJ Watt. Brian Cushing's return from injury should help Mercilus even more. The front four should create space and time for the linebackers to get to the QB.
Fantasy Impact Player: WR DeAndre Hopkins
Usually the recommendation is to stay away from rookie wide receivers. Andre Johnson had a great season in 2012 and the Texans finally have another deep threat across from Johnson for Matt Schaub to throw to.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing Ed Reed
Reed may not be the player he once was, but he is a leader and brings Super Bowl experience to the Texans locker room. Reed gives everything he has on every play and the hope is that his attitude and style rubs off on everyone.
Worst Off-Season Move: Sticking with QB Matt Schaub
The Texans have made the playoffs the last two seasons, the only two playoff appearances in franchise history. Schaub threw just one touchdown and four interceptions in the final five weeks of the season as the Texans went from number one seed to three.
Training Camp Battles: RT – Derek Newton vs. Ryan Harris vs. Brennan Williams
Newton is recovering from knee surgery and was the starter for most of last season. Ryan Harris is a former third round pick with the Broncos. Brennan Williams was a third round pick in this year’s draft out of UNC. He may well be the future at right tackle but the question is whether or not he is also the present. Or if veterans like Newton and Harris have an edge due to experience.
Previous NFL Previews:
We continue our 2013 NFL Preview with the AFC South
With every team, we will look at a non-first round pick that is likely to have the biggest impact in 2013. First round picks should have a big impact, so we will look beyond that. Also breakout players and fantasy impact players, for those of you into that kind of thing. We evaluate the best and worst moves of the off-season for each team and preview one of the training camp battles to watch.
Previous NFL Previews:
HOUSTON TEXANS
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: DJ Swearinger S (2nd round)
We discuss Ed Reed's impact below but Swearinger has a chance to learn from the future Hall of Famer and play behind him and next to him in certain defensive packages. Safety and secondary was one of the Texans biggest weaknesses in 2012 so they upgraded safety in the second round.
Breakout Player(s): OLB Whitney Mercilus
Second year player will no longer split time with Connor Barwin. Mercilus had 6 sacks in 2012 (second among rookies) but was over shadowed by JJ Watt. Brian Cushing's return from injury should help Mercilus even more. The front four should create space and time for the linebackers to get to the QB.
Fantasy Impact Player: WR DeAndre Hopkins
Usually the recommendation is to stay away from rookie wide receivers. Andre Johnson had a great season in 2012 and the Texans finally have another deep threat across from Johnson for Matt Schaub to throw to.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing Ed Reed
Reed may not be the player he once was, but he is a leader and brings Super Bowl experience to the Texans locker room. Reed gives everything he has on every play and the hope is that his attitude and style rubs off on everyone.
Worst Off-Season Move: Sticking with QB Matt Schaub
The Texans have made the playoffs the last two seasons, the only two playoff appearances in franchise history. Schaub threw just one touchdown and four interceptions in the final five weeks of the season as the Texans went from number one seed to three.
Training Camp Battles: RT – Derek Newton vs. Ryan Harris vs. Brennan Williams
Newton is recovering from knee surgery and was the starter for most of last season. Ryan Harris is a former third round pick with the Broncos. Brennan Williams was a third round pick in this year’s draft out of UNC. He may well be the future at right tackle but the question is whether or not he is also the present. Or if veterans like Newton and Harris have an edge due to experience.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: OG Hugh Thornton (3rd round) OC Khaled Holmes (4th round)
Both men are together because they can have an important role together protecting Andrew Luck.
Breakout Player(s): TE Coby Fleener
Many people expected Fleener to have a big rookie campaign because of his history with QB Andrew Luck. Fleener had a subpar 2012 and fellow rookie Dwayne Allen had a much more successful season. With a full off-season of workouts and doctors declaring Fleener completely healthy, expect him to have a big impact
Fantasy Impact Player: QB Andrew Luck
Luck had the 10th most fantasy points in 2012, despite being a rookie. Luck’s biggest issue was turnovers. 18 interceptions was tied with Mark Sanchez (not good company) for the second most behind Tony Romo and Drew Brees. Brees can compensate for 19 INTs by throwing 43 TDs. Luck only had 23 TDs. Lowering his interceptions will increase his points and touchdowns should increase as well as chemistry continues to increase with his WRs.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Bradshaw may not be the workhorse he once was, having been slowed by injuries recently. But with Vick Ballard and Donald Brown, Bradshaw won't need to carry a full load on his own and minimize the wear and tear he absorbs. Bradshaw can still be very effective and is also a tremendous pass blocker and receiver out of the back field to help Luck even more.
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing LB Erik Walden
It’s not that Walden is bad, it’s that he is not worth the four years and $16 million contract the Colts gave him. Walden had 46 tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 interceptions with the Packers last season. The Colts drafted Bjoern Werner in the first round and it’s likely he will take over Walden’s spot before his four deal expires.
Training Camp Battles: WR – Darrius Heyward-Bey vs. TY Hilton
Both men are known for being fast, possession receivers. This winner of this training camp battle will start across from Reggie Wayne. Heyward-Bey had 606 yards and 6 TD in Oakland last year and Hilton had 861 yards and 7 TDs as a rookie for the Colts. With the Colts likely playing a two TE offense, the second receiver will be an important battle for playing time and also for fantasy football players.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Coaching Shuffle: Fired Mike Mularkey after one season and hired Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
Mularkey went 2-14 in his one season with Jacksonville and failed to further develop QB Blaine Gabbert. This is Bradley’s first head coaching job and is well qualified after the work he did in Seattle with their defense and learning under Pete Carroll. Bradley has his work cut out for him and the Jaguars need to rebuild through the draft and youth. Jedd Fisch is the new offensive coordinator after spending two years in college at Miami and previously with Seattle with Bradley. Fisch has the unpleasant task of trying to straighten out Blaine Gabbert.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: S Jonathan Cyprien (2nd round)
Cyprien could have gone first round but slipped to Jacksonville at the beginning of the second round. Cyprien will enter camp as the starter at strong safety with little competition. Cyprien is the leader at several statistical categories at Florida International as well as being among the best at other categories. Cyprien will provide Gus Bradley with a ball-hawking, playmaker to help run his defense.
Breakout Player(s): DE Tyson Alualu
Alualu has primarily been considered a bust since being the 10th pick in the 2010 draft. But with a new defensive system and defensive minded staff, he will move to DE. He might not rush the passer as frequently as when he was a DT but he was ineffective at that anyway. Alualu will likely focus on stopping the run in his new role.
Best Off-Season Move: 2013 Draft
Many draft pundits labeled Texas A&M LT Luke Joeckell as the top OT in the draft. Offensive line is the Jaguars biggest need and they managed to snag arguably the top LT with the #2 pick. They also selected one of the top safeties, Jonathan Cyprien., who we mentioned earlier. CB Dwayne Gratz is another player who can benefit the Jags secondary and play right away. They drafted two offensive weapons that can play all over the field - Ace Sanders and Denard Robinson. Both men can be used in the backfield, slot receiver, kick returner. With a difficult cap situation, the Jaguars hit a homerun with their draft and are on the right track now for the future.
Worst Off-Season Move: Not upgrading QB
Blaine Gabbert is pretty bad and Chad Henne is nothing special. Jacksonville has a collection of unknown young guys on their training camp roster, such as Mike Kafka, Matt Scott, and Jordan Rodgers, Aaron’s younger brother. In 10 games played, Henne had 2,084 yards, 11 TD, 11 INT. Gabbert also played 10 games and had 1,662 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT. Bradley and Fisch will keep an open mind as they look for whoever is going to give them the most wins.
Training Camp Battles: QB – Gabbert vs Henne
This is the biggest story to watch in Jacksonville. Gabbert was drafted 10th overall in 2011 so entering his third season this might be make or break for him. Henne is a 6 year veteran now entering his second season with the Jags.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB (3rd rd)
Wreh-Wilson will have a chance to rotate in the Titans secondary. Jason McCourty is the top CB but after him Wreh-Wilson will compete with Coty Sensabaugh and Tommie Campbell for playing time.
Breakout Player(s): QB Jake Locker
In his third season, Locker is poised to break through in 2013. The Titans added more weapons and some protection for him. They drafted OG Floyd Womack early. They added Shonn Greene to back up Chris Johnson and drafted WR Justin Hunter to go with Kenny Britt and Kendall right. Jared Cook is a big loss but Delanie Walker has a chance to put up solid numbers for Tennessee.
Fantasy Impact Player: RB Chris Johnson
As we will discuss below, the Titans made serious upgrades to their o-line and also to their running back depth chart to free up more holes for CJ and to keep him fresh too. Johnson did have a bounce back year in 2012 after a brutal 2011. Expect his bounce back to continue and for Johnson to improve even further on his 2012 season.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing OG Andy Levitre
The Titans made Offensive Line their priority in free agency and signing Levitre was a great move. He replaces Steve Hutchinson and will provide the Titans with an immediate upgrade on the interior of their line. Levitre is excellent in pass blocking and should improve the Titans run blocking, creating more openings for Chris Johnson. The Titans also used this year’s first round pick to take Chance Warmack, another guard from Alabama.
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing RB Shonn Greene
It's not that Greene is a bad running back, it's that Tennessee is a bad fit for him personally. Greene is probably good enough to be in a 50-50 or at worst 60-40 carries split but with Chris Johnson the man for the Titans, the split may be more 80-20 and if that's the case, the Titans might have been better off spending money elsewhere. Greene should help spell Johnson though.
Training Camp Battles: SS – Bernard Pollard vs. George Wilson
The Titans signed a pair of veterans to help shore up a weak secondary. Pollard and Wilson are both experienced starters and should both see the field, but the battle in camp and throughout the season will be intense with both men wanting to play.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: OG Hugh Thornton (3rd round) OC Khaled Holmes (4th round)
Both men are together because they can have an important role together protecting Andrew Luck.
Breakout Player(s): TE Coby Fleener
Many people expected Fleener to have a big rookie campaign because of his history with QB Andrew Luck. Fleener had a subpar 2012 and fellow rookie Dwayne Allen had a much more successful season. With a full off-season of workouts and doctors declaring Fleener completely healthy, expect him to have a big impact
Fantasy Impact Player: QB Andrew Luck
Luck had the 10th most fantasy points in 2012, despite being a rookie. Luck’s biggest issue was turnovers. 18 interceptions was tied with Mark Sanchez (not good company) for the second most behind Tony Romo and Drew Brees. Brees can compensate for 19 INTs by throwing 43 TDs. Luck only had 23 TDs. Lowering his interceptions will increase his points and touchdowns should increase as well as chemistry continues to increase with his WRs.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing RB Ahmad Bradshaw
Bradshaw may not be the workhorse he once was, having been slowed by injuries recently. But with Vick Ballard and Donald Brown, Bradshaw won't need to carry a full load on his own and minimize the wear and tear he absorbs. Bradshaw can still be very effective and is also a tremendous pass blocker and receiver out of the back field to help Luck even more.
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing LB Erik Walden
It’s not that Walden is bad, it’s that he is not worth the four years and $16 million contract the Colts gave him. Walden had 46 tackles, 3 sacks, and 2 interceptions with the Packers last season. The Colts drafted Bjoern Werner in the first round and it’s likely he will take over Walden’s spot before his four deal expires.
Training Camp Battles: WR – Darrius Heyward-Bey vs. TY Hilton
Both men are known for being fast, possession receivers. This winner of this training camp battle will start across from Reggie Wayne. Heyward-Bey had 606 yards and 6 TD in Oakland last year and Hilton had 861 yards and 7 TDs as a rookie for the Colts. With the Colts likely playing a two TE offense, the second receiver will be an important battle for playing time and also for fantasy football players.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Coaching Shuffle: Fired Mike Mularkey after one season and hired Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
Mularkey went 2-14 in his one season with Jacksonville and failed to further develop QB Blaine Gabbert. This is Bradley’s first head coaching job and is well qualified after the work he did in Seattle with their defense and learning under Pete Carroll. Bradley has his work cut out for him and the Jaguars need to rebuild through the draft and youth. Jedd Fisch is the new offensive coordinator after spending two years in college at Miami and previously with Seattle with Bradley. Fisch has the unpleasant task of trying to straighten out Blaine Gabbert.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: S Jonathan Cyprien (2nd round)
Cyprien could have gone first round but slipped to Jacksonville at the beginning of the second round. Cyprien will enter camp as the starter at strong safety with little competition. Cyprien is the leader at several statistical categories at Florida International as well as being among the best at other categories. Cyprien will provide Gus Bradley with a ball-hawking, playmaker to help run his defense.
Breakout Player(s): DE Tyson Alualu
Alualu has primarily been considered a bust since being the 10th pick in the 2010 draft. But with a new defensive system and defensive minded staff, he will move to DE. He might not rush the passer as frequently as when he was a DT but he was ineffective at that anyway. Alualu will likely focus on stopping the run in his new role.
Best Off-Season Move: 2013 Draft
Many draft pundits labeled Texas A&M LT Luke Joeckell as the top OT in the draft. Offensive line is the Jaguars biggest need and they managed to snag arguably the top LT with the #2 pick. They also selected one of the top safeties, Jonathan Cyprien., who we mentioned earlier. CB Dwayne Gratz is another player who can benefit the Jags secondary and play right away. They drafted two offensive weapons that can play all over the field - Ace Sanders and Denard Robinson. Both men can be used in the backfield, slot receiver, kick returner. With a difficult cap situation, the Jaguars hit a homerun with their draft and are on the right track now for the future.
Worst Off-Season Move: Not upgrading QB
Blaine Gabbert is pretty bad and Chad Henne is nothing special. Jacksonville has a collection of unknown young guys on their training camp roster, such as Mike Kafka, Matt Scott, and Jordan Rodgers, Aaron’s younger brother. In 10 games played, Henne had 2,084 yards, 11 TD, 11 INT. Gabbert also played 10 games and had 1,662 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT. Bradley and Fisch will keep an open mind as they look for whoever is going to give them the most wins.
Training Camp Battles: QB – Gabbert vs Henne
This is the biggest story to watch in Jacksonville. Gabbert was drafted 10th overall in 2011 so entering his third season this might be make or break for him. Henne is a 6 year veteran now entering his second season with the Jags.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB (3rd rd)
Wreh-Wilson will have a chance to rotate in the Titans secondary. Jason McCourty is the top CB but after him Wreh-Wilson will compete with Coty Sensabaugh and Tommie Campbell for playing time.
Breakout Player(s): QB Jake Locker
In his third season, Locker is poised to break through in 2013. The Titans added more weapons and some protection for him. They drafted OG Floyd Womack early. They added Shonn Greene to back up Chris Johnson and drafted WR Justin Hunter to go with Kenny Britt and Kendall right. Jared Cook is a big loss but Delanie Walker has a chance to put up solid numbers for Tennessee.
Fantasy Impact Player: RB Chris Johnson
As we will discuss below, the Titans made serious upgrades to their o-line and also to their running back depth chart to free up more holes for CJ and to keep him fresh too. Johnson did have a bounce back year in 2012 after a brutal 2011. Expect his bounce back to continue and for Johnson to improve even further on his 2012 season.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing OG Andy Levitre
The Titans made Offensive Line their priority in free agency and signing Levitre was a great move. He replaces Steve Hutchinson and will provide the Titans with an immediate upgrade on the interior of their line. Levitre is excellent in pass blocking and should improve the Titans run blocking, creating more openings for Chris Johnson. The Titans also used this year’s first round pick to take Chance Warmack, another guard from Alabama.
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing RB Shonn Greene
It's not that Greene is a bad running back, it's that Tennessee is a bad fit for him personally. Greene is probably good enough to be in a 50-50 or at worst 60-40 carries split but with Chris Johnson the man for the Titans, the split may be more 80-20 and if that's the case, the Titans might have been better off spending money elsewhere. Greene should help spell Johnson though.
Training Camp Battles: SS – Bernard Pollard vs. George Wilson
The Titans signed a pair of veterans to help shore up a weak secondary. Pollard and Wilson are both experienced starters and should both see the field, but the battle in camp and throughout the season will be intense with both men wanting to play.
Previous NFL Previews:
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