2013 NFL Preview: AFC West
By Michael Schneid
We continue our 2013 NFL Preview with the AFC South
With every team, we will look at a non-first round pick that is likely to have the biggest impact in 2013. First round picks should have a big impact, so we will look beyond that. Also breakout players and fantasy impact players, for those of you into that kind of thing. We evaluate the best and worst moves of the off-season for each team and preview one of the training camp battles to watch.
We continue our 2013 NFL Preview with the AFC South
With every team, we will look at a non-first round pick that is likely to have the biggest impact in 2013. First round picks should have a big impact, so we will look beyond that. Also breakout players and fantasy impact players, for those of you into that kind of thing. We evaluate the best and worst moves of the off-season for each team and preview one of the training camp battles to watch.
Previous NFL Previews:
DENVER BRONCOS
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: RB Montee Ball (2nd round)
Ronnie Hillman enters training camp as #1 on the depth chart but that isn’t expected to last too long. Denver drafted the former Wisconsin workhorse in the second round, with the intention of being the running back of the future. But he should also be the running back of the present. Ball carried the ball over 300 times the last two seasons and will be a key part of the Broncos offense when the weather gets colder.
Breakout Player(s): DE Derek Wolfe
The former University of Cincinnati defensive end had a pretty good rookie season in Denver. He finished his rookie season with 6 sacks. With Elvis Dumervil gone, Wolfe will need to step up even more and play an even bigger role.
Fantasy Impact Player: Broncos WRs
You can’t go wrong drafting Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker. All three had over 80 receptions, 1000 yards, and 10 TDs. If all three can replicate those numbers in 2013 which would put them all atop the points list for WRs. Welker is always a PPR star.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing Wes Welker
Welker caught 118 passes in 2012 and had over 1300 yards. Despite the presence of Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, this will make the Broncos offense even better, as Welker is always reliable. The move is also a great move because the Broncos gain is the Patriots loss, and anytime you can take a rival and key competitor’s top weapon, it is a huge gain.
Worst Off-Season Move: Losing Elvis Dumervil
Dumervil had 11 sacks in 2012, but was released due to some issues with a fax machine and Dumervil needing to agree to new deal. He is now with Baltimore. As mentoned earlier, Derek Wolfe will need to step up as will former first round pick Robert Ayers. The loss of Dumervil was surprising and not expected but Denver has a slew of young players ready to step up in his place. Still, losing a pro-bowl, key player on a playoff team is never good.
Training Camp Battles: RB - Ronnie Hillman vs. Montee Ball vs. Knowshon Moreno
Willis McGahee was the lead back in 2012 but he has been released so it’s up to the 2012 second round pick, 2013 second round pick and 2009 first round pick. Ball is expected to eventually win the job with Hillman likely the primary backup. Moreno could find himself on the bench or perhaps on another roster before long.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: RB Montee Ball (2nd round)
Ronnie Hillman enters training camp as #1 on the depth chart but that isn’t expected to last too long. Denver drafted the former Wisconsin workhorse in the second round, with the intention of being the running back of the future. But he should also be the running back of the present. Ball carried the ball over 300 times the last two seasons and will be a key part of the Broncos offense when the weather gets colder.
Breakout Player(s): DE Derek Wolfe
The former University of Cincinnati defensive end had a pretty good rookie season in Denver. He finished his rookie season with 6 sacks. With Elvis Dumervil gone, Wolfe will need to step up even more and play an even bigger role.
Fantasy Impact Player: Broncos WRs
You can’t go wrong drafting Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker. All three had over 80 receptions, 1000 yards, and 10 TDs. If all three can replicate those numbers in 2013 which would put them all atop the points list for WRs. Welker is always a PPR star.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing Wes Welker
Welker caught 118 passes in 2012 and had over 1300 yards. Despite the presence of Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, this will make the Broncos offense even better, as Welker is always reliable. The move is also a great move because the Broncos gain is the Patriots loss, and anytime you can take a rival and key competitor’s top weapon, it is a huge gain.
Worst Off-Season Move: Losing Elvis Dumervil
Dumervil had 11 sacks in 2012, but was released due to some issues with a fax machine and Dumervil needing to agree to new deal. He is now with Baltimore. As mentoned earlier, Derek Wolfe will need to step up as will former first round pick Robert Ayers. The loss of Dumervil was surprising and not expected but Denver has a slew of young players ready to step up in his place. Still, losing a pro-bowl, key player on a playoff team is never good.
Training Camp Battles: RB - Ronnie Hillman vs. Montee Ball vs. Knowshon Moreno
Willis McGahee was the lead back in 2012 but he has been released so it’s up to the 2012 second round pick, 2013 second round pick and 2009 first round pick. Ball is expected to eventually win the job with Hillman likely the primary backup. Moreno could find himself on the bench or perhaps on another roster before long.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Coaching
Shuffle: After 13 years in Philadelphia, Andy Reid is now in
charge of the Chiefs. The Chiefs could have opted for a young up-and-coming
coordinator but they decided to accelerate the rebuilding process by hiring
arguably the best coach available and keeping some veterans to win now.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: TE Travis Kelce (3rd rd)
Kelce really emerged as a pass catcher in 2012 at the University of Cincinnati. He became Cincy's top receiving option, leading the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns. For the Chiefs, he will provide Alex Smith with another weapon offensively, and a security blanket as a TE. Kelce is also an excellent blocker and can provide the Chiefs with a 6th blocker while new acquisition Anthony Fasano goes out to catch passes too.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: TE Travis Kelce (3rd rd)
Kelce really emerged as a pass catcher in 2012 at the University of Cincinnati. He became Cincy's top receiving option, leading the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns. For the Chiefs, he will provide Alex Smith with another weapon offensively, and a security blanket as a TE. Kelce is also an excellent blocker and can provide the Chiefs with a 6th blocker while new acquisition Anthony Fasano goes out to catch passes too.
Breakout Player(s): SS Eric Berry
Berry was the 5th overall pick in 2010 and made the Pro Bowl in 2010 and 2012, he missed 2011 with a torn ACL. He has 5 career interceptions. Andy Reid will use Berry the way he used to use Brian Dawkins. Berry has the potential to be one of the best safeties in football and now with a veteran, experienced coaching staff and an improved defense as a whole, Berry should be able to shine in the Chiefs secondary.
Fantasy Impact Player: WR Dwayne Bowe
Bowe has had some very lackluster QBs in his career. Alex Smith is by far the best QB he has played with. Given Smith’s accuracy, Bowe should be able to increase his numbers all across the board. Bowe did has 801 yards last season but only 3 TDs, because the Chiefs offense struggled. They should be improved so the touchdowns should at least increase
Best Off-Season Move: Trading for QB Alex Smith
Matt Cassel was terrible in 2012 and Alex Smith put up big numbers in a resurgent 2011 season. He was having another very good 2012 but a concussion cost him his starting job. SF worked with Smith and traded him to KC, where he will start immediately and not worry about any competition. Smith has dealt with struggles, inconsistency, and coaching turnover since being the first pick in the draft in 2005. In 10 games in 2012, Smith completed 70% of his passes, which is a pretty incredible rate. In 2012, when he started all 16 games he completed 61.3% and threw just 5 interceptions. In four seasons in KC, Matt Cassel never completed more than 59% of his passes and last season threw just 6 TDs and 12 INTs. Acquiring Smith was a much better move than drafting someone like Geno Smith first overall or someone else later in the draft.
Worst Off-Season Move: Not trading Branden Albert to the Dolphins
Rumors and reports circulated heavily in April that the Dolphins were offering a draft pick to the Chiefs for Brandon Albert. KC ultimately balked and kept their franchise player. But after drafting Eric Fisher first overall, it is going to be hard to pay Albert unless Fisher remains at RT for the forseeable future. KC should have cut their losses and moved on from Albert.
Training Camp Battles: #2 CB – Sean Smith vs. Dunta Robinson
Brandon Flowers is the Chiefs #1 CB. They signed Robinson from Houston and Smith from Miami, and both men started 16 games for their respective teams. Now, they will compete for the starting spot across from Flowers. Smith and Robinson will both be especially valuable against the Broncos, who have three Pro Bowl WRs.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Coaching
Shuffle: San Diego hired former Broncos Offensive Coordinator
Mike McCoy. McCoy did wonders with Tim Tebow in 2011 and whether he taught
Peyton Manning in 2012 or Manning taught him, he still worked with him for one
year. McCoy was hired with the idea in mind that he could fix Philip Rivers.
McCoy replaces Norv Turner, who had limited success and couldn’t win the big
games. Former Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt is the new Offensive
Coordinator. It’s a big move for the McCoy to have a coach with head coaching
experience on his staff and specifically Having Whisenhunt on the staff is also
valuable because McCoy is a first time head coach and won’t have to burden
responsibility of running the offense and calling plays.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: WR Keenan Allen (3rd rd)
Allen had first round talent but slipped due to concerns over an injury. The Chargers have a lot of depth at wide receiver and Allen might have a chance to eventually take over a starting role.
Breakout Player(s): WR Vincent Brown
Finally healthy after an ankle injury caused him to miss all of 2012 season. Brown will have the chance to start.
Fantasy Impact Player: QB Philip Rivers
Rivers is bound to bounce back from a rough 2012 campaign. He has some good WRs and still has Antonio Gates. More importantly he no longer has Norv Turner. Mike McCoy should have a very positive influence on Rivers as will new OC Ken Whisenhunt. Both men should be play big roles in helping Rivers improve and he could be a sleeper QB in fantasy in 2013.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing CB Derek Cox and Dwight Freeney
Cox replaces Quentin Jammer and Freeney provides the Chargers with a veteran presence along their D-Line
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing RB Danny Woodhead
No disrespect to Woodhead, who is a solid change of pace back. But the Chargers need someone who can really push Ryan Mathews and take over and I dont think Woodhead has #1 RB potential. The Chargers are likely to split carries a lot more this year, and could have gotten a better backup to do so, someone like Shonn Greene.
Training Camp Battles: WR – Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown, Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem, Keenan Allen, Eddie Royal
Are all six going to make the team? Floyd and Meachem’s roster spots could be in question if Alexander and Brown win the starting jobs and Keenan Allen impresses in camp. It’s possible the Chargers carry six receivers but hard to believe they would keep a veteran like Meachem as low as 6th on depth chart. The competition is wide open with Alexander and Brown the favorites to start. Alexander came on strong to end 2012. He broke out in week 10 with 134 yards and a TD and never looked back. He ultimately finished with 7 catches and became Rivers’ number one guy down the stretch. Brown had high potential before breaking his ankle last year and Floyd is a proven, reliable vet.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: WR Keenan Allen (3rd rd)
Allen had first round talent but slipped due to concerns over an injury. The Chargers have a lot of depth at wide receiver and Allen might have a chance to eventually take over a starting role.
Breakout Player(s): WR Vincent Brown
Finally healthy after an ankle injury caused him to miss all of 2012 season. Brown will have the chance to start.
Fantasy Impact Player: QB Philip Rivers
Rivers is bound to bounce back from a rough 2012 campaign. He has some good WRs and still has Antonio Gates. More importantly he no longer has Norv Turner. Mike McCoy should have a very positive influence on Rivers as will new OC Ken Whisenhunt. Both men should be play big roles in helping Rivers improve and he could be a sleeper QB in fantasy in 2013.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing CB Derek Cox and Dwight Freeney
Cox replaces Quentin Jammer and Freeney provides the Chargers with a veteran presence along their D-Line
Worst Off-Season Move: Signing RB Danny Woodhead
No disrespect to Woodhead, who is a solid change of pace back. But the Chargers need someone who can really push Ryan Mathews and take over and I dont think Woodhead has #1 RB potential. The Chargers are likely to split carries a lot more this year, and could have gotten a better backup to do so, someone like Shonn Greene.
Training Camp Battles: WR – Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown, Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem, Keenan Allen, Eddie Royal
Are all six going to make the team? Floyd and Meachem’s roster spots could be in question if Alexander and Brown win the starting jobs and Keenan Allen impresses in camp. It’s possible the Chargers carry six receivers but hard to believe they would keep a veteran like Meachem as low as 6th on depth chart. The competition is wide open with Alexander and Brown the favorites to start. Alexander came on strong to end 2012. He broke out in week 10 with 134 yards and a TD and never looked back. He ultimately finished with 7 catches and became Rivers’ number one guy down the stretch. Brown had high potential before breaking his ankle last year and Floyd is a proven, reliable vet.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: LB Sio Moore
Moore is expected to started at linebacker, a position of weakness for Oakland last season. The Raiders are in need of playmakers and could rely on Moore early to make plays and impact the defense.
Breakout Player(s): QB Matt Flynn
Last year Matt Flynn got traded to Seattle where he was the projected starter. Seattle used a third round pick on Russel Wilson who was very impressive in training camp and became the Week 1 starter. A similar situation could happen in Oakland. Wilson will have to have a really impressive camp to unseat Flynn but expect him to be the starter sooner than later. He has a strong arm and learned from a smart offensive coach in Bobby Petrino at Arkansas.
Non-first round draft pick to make biggest impact: LB Sio Moore
Moore is expected to started at linebacker, a position of weakness for Oakland last season. The Raiders are in need of playmakers and could rely on Moore early to make plays and impact the defense.
Breakout Player(s): QB Matt Flynn
Last year Matt Flynn got traded to Seattle where he was the projected starter. Seattle used a third round pick on Russel Wilson who was very impressive in training camp and became the Week 1 starter. A similar situation could happen in Oakland. Wilson will have to have a really impressive camp to unseat Flynn but expect him to be the starter sooner than later. He has a strong arm and learned from a smart offensive coach in Bobby Petrino at Arkansas.
Fantasy Impact Player: WR Denarious Moore
Someone will have to produce on offense and Matt Flynn needs someone to throw to. Moore is the Raiders best offensive weapon. Rod Streater, Jacob Jones, and Juron Criner are behind him on the depth chart and he is undoubtedly the #1 WR.
Best Off-Season Move: Signing FS Charles Woodson
Even if just for nostalgic purposes, but Woodson can be a leader in the locker room too. He can help mentor some of the young guys in the locker room. Woodson began his career in Oakland and began it as a CB. He can help mentor 3rd overall pick DJ Hayden
Worst Off-Season Move: Not upgrading backup RB
Darren McFadden is made of glass. He is very breakable. The Raiders lost Mike Goodson and signed Rashad Jennings to back up McFadden. Jennings didn’t prove much in his opportunities last season with Jacksonville If McFadden gets hurt again, Oakland may continue to struggle with the run game.
Training Camp Battles: #2 CB Mike Jenkins vs. Tracy Porter
A couple of former first round draft picks competing to start across their 2013 first round pick DJ Hayden.
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