AFC Wild Card Analysis
By Michael Schneid
The 5th seed and first wild card will be whoever does not win the AFC West, between the Broncos and the Chiefs. The 6th seed? That's a funny story.
Right now, the Jets (5-5) are the leaders for the last playoff spot and the Dolphins, despite all their turmoil, are also 5-5. The Raiders, Titans, Steelers, Browns, Ravens, Chargers are all 4-6 and the Bills are 4-7. Pretty much everyone in the AFC has a chance to make the playoffs, except the Texans and Jaguars, who have a combined 3 wins. Let's look at each team's chances.
QB Issues
Prediction?
This may be unimaginative, but the Ravens get the 6 seed. The next three weeks will tell us everything we need to know about this team. They play the Jets and Steelers, before playing the Vikings. All three games at home and two of which against teams they are directly competing with. They end the year @ Detroit, home vs New England, and @ Cincinnati. The Ravens likely need to go 2-1 in their final three and 3-0 in the next three. Nothing about the way they have been playing suggests a 5-1 finish is even possible, but their coaching staff and players are experienced enough to know what they have to do to end the season strong.
The 5th seed and first wild card will be whoever does not win the AFC West, between the Broncos and the Chiefs. The 6th seed? That's a funny story.
Right now, the Jets (5-5) are the leaders for the last playoff spot and the Dolphins, despite all their turmoil, are also 5-5. The Raiders, Titans, Steelers, Browns, Ravens, Chargers are all 4-6 and the Bills are 4-7. Pretty much everyone in the AFC has a chance to make the playoffs, except the Texans and Jaguars, who have a combined 3 wins. Let's look at each team's chances.
QB Issues
- Jets rookie Geno Smith is bipolar. Looks good one week. Looks awful the next week.
- UDFA rookie Matt McGloin started and won for the Raiders yesterday. He looked good and Terrell Pryor has struggled as a passer. But can McGloin play well against a team with more than 2 wins (Texans)?
- Ryan Fitzpatrick is the Titans starter for the rest of the year with Jake Locker out for the season. The Harvard grad has been underwhelming and winless in four starts.
- The Browns are using Jason Campbell because Brian Hoyer is out for the year and the coaching staff has no confidence in Brandon Weeden.
- Ravens won the Super Bowl last year. They don't have the emotions of Ray Lewis retiring to get them hyped up. Baltimore seems like a team simply going through the motions right now and not playing with much passion and energy. Ray Rice finally had a big game but has struggled all year and Joe Flacco has looked very average, especially without Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta
- Steelers have a lot of recent success and after missing the playoffs last year got off to a putrid start this year. But they are now 4-6 and Big Ben is playing great. Defense needs to keep it up for them to have a chance at a playoff run
- Rex Ryan entered this season under the assumption by many that he would not retain his job in 2014. He has the Jets at 5-5 and believing they are contenders. And despite the offensive struggles, the defense has been outstanding. Playoffs or not, Rex may have bought himself another year.
- Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin is on the hot seat for all the wrong reasons. A bullying controversy has made headlines in Miami. GM Jeff Ireland is also on the hot seat after spending a lot of money in free agency. If the GM goes, expect the coach to follow too. Anything short of the playoffs may cost both men their jobs, and even if they do, they need to hope this bullying issue doesn't hurt them either
- Mike Munchak could be in trouble if Tennessee misses the playoffs for the third straight year with Munchak in charge. He inherited the job after Jeff Fisher was fired and has a 19-23 record. Titans probably need to make playoffs for Munchak to survive.
- Mike Tomlin is safe but it will be hard to see offensive coordinator Todd Haley return in 2014, one way or another. Haley and Ben Roethsliberger have publically clashed in the past and his offensive play calling is questionable at times. He will likely be the fall guy if Pittsburgh fails to make playoffs.
- Dennis Allen has the Raiders in the playoff conversation despite a roster that lacks the talent level of other playoff contending teams. Barring a big collapse and season-ending losing streak, Allen is probably safe to return to Oakland for a third year in 2014
- Doug Marrone said in training camp, he was going to run CJ Spiller until he threw up. Spiller hasn't run well and has struggled with injuries. The QB position has also been a revolving door due to injuries with rookie EJ Manuel missing time due to a new injury and Jeff Tuel and Thadeus Lewis filling in for him. Marrone has dealt with some bad luck but has the Bills competitive and in the playoff conversation.
- Rob Chudzinski made a strong statement early on when he benched Brandon Weeden for the relatively unknown, Brian Hoyer. Hoyer had a lot of success before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Chud and the Browns front office also made a strong statement, trading RB Trent Richardson. Many people thought the Browns were throwing in the towel on 2013, but here we are with 6 games to play and Browns, 2 games under .500 and talking about playoff chances
- Mike McCoy has instilled a new confidence in QB Philip Rivers. He has helped Rivers improve on his awful interceptions from a year ago and has the Chargers playing inspired football.
Prediction?
This may be unimaginative, but the Ravens get the 6 seed. The next three weeks will tell us everything we need to know about this team. They play the Jets and Steelers, before playing the Vikings. All three games at home and two of which against teams they are directly competing with. They end the year @ Detroit, home vs New England, and @ Cincinnati. The Ravens likely need to go 2-1 in their final three and 3-0 in the next three. Nothing about the way they have been playing suggests a 5-1 finish is even possible, but their coaching staff and players are experienced enough to know what they have to do to end the season strong.
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