American Athletic Conference Football Standings and Bowl Analysis
By Michael Schneid
Before the season MotleySports projected Louisville to run the table in the AAC and finish 11-1, claiming the league's final BCS title. With UCF, Cincinnati, and Rutgers all in contention as well. Three of those four teams find themselves in the mix with a fourth team in contention as recently as this weekend.
After consecutive losses to UCF and Louisville, Houston's long shot BCS hopes are pretty much done. The Cougars are currently 7-3 (4-2 AAC) and finish the season with Cincy and SMU.
Cincy, UCF, and Louisville are all still in contention for the BCS bowl bid. UCF, after beating Louisville on October 17th, are in the driver's seat. UCF is 8-1, and unbeaten in conference play with games vs. Rutgers (this Thursday), USF, and @ SMU remaining. Should the Knights win all three, they will go to the school's first ever BCS bowl game.
Should they lose however, would complicate things a bit. Cincinnati hosts Louisville on December 5. That game is essentially an elimination game. The Bearcats lost to USF back in October, a game they are really regretting losing right about now. Louisville basically needs two UCF losses to have a chance given their head-to-head loss. They also could have used a Cincy win over USF because a three-way tiebreaker might have benefited the Cardinals.
Cincinnati does not play UCF head to head. So a UCF loss and Cincy winning out would mean using BCS rankings as a tie-breaker. Cincy does play two winning teams in Houston and Louisville while a UCF loss to Rutgers, USF, or SMU wouldn't be very good to their overall resume. UCF is currently 19th in the BCS and Cincinnati is 29th. So there is a chance the Bearcats can pass them, however slightly.
After these three teams, Houston and SMU each have two conference losses. The Mustangs are 4-5 overall and play Uconn, Houston, and UCF to end the season. So a bowl game is still up in the air. Rutgers is 5-4 and play UCF this week before ending with Uconn and South Florida, both of whom are disappointing.
The bottom of the conference is very weak, with USF 2-7 (no idea how they beat Cincinnati). Memphis 3-6 (1-4 AAC), and Uconn and Temple are both winless in conference play, while Temple does have one win against Army. Temple and Uconn play each other this Saturday in what should be an epic American Athletic football showdown.
The Bowl Picture
Assuming UCF doesn't falter at the end of the season they will likely go to the Sugar Bowl. The Orange Bowl has "first pick" among at-large teams and will have their choice between Wisconsin, Michigan State, Stanford to play ACC representative Clemson. With Fresno State currently slated for the Fiesta Bowl, that means UCF will likely face one of Auburn, Missouri, or Texas A&M in the Sugar Bowl. If Fresno State were to lose a game, however, it's likely UCF would play in the Fiesta Bowl.
Louisville, who many still believe is the conference's best team, will most likely play in the Russell Athletic bowl against an ACC team, and future conference foe.
Belk Bowl will have a decision to make. It's questionable whether or not they would want Cincinnati to come back. Cincy beat Duke last year 48-34 in what turned out to be one of the most exciting games of the bowl season. But bowls often don't like repeating teams in consecutive years with the thinking that fans won't travel to the same game again. That leaves Rutgers and Houston as options. If Houston goes 1-1 to end the season with a loss to Cincy and win over SMU, expect Belk to take Houston to face an ACC team.
That leaves Cincinnati going to the Pinstripe Bowl, sponsored by the Yankees. The likely opponent for this game is Notre Dame, who get an at-large bowl bid. The Big 12 has the tie-in for this game and officially as of Saturday will not fill all of their bowl slots. So Pinstripe can pick between a list of teams, and you know if they get their way they will pick Notre Dame, who is undoubtedly a major draw anywhere. Plus, they would love to have Cincy as the opponent. The Irish are coached by Brian Kelly, who was incredibly successful in three years at Cincy, guiding them to two BCS games. The storylines write themselves for this game and would be a no-brainer.
Rutgers, who could be 7-5 or worse, would slide to the BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham. It's also possible the conference, who has some say in bowl slotting, will make sure Rutgers goes to this game almost as a punishment for leaving the conference. Why reward them with a game in their own backyard (Bronx) against a team like Notre Dame. It's likely the commissioner Mike Aresco uses his authority to place Houston in Belk and Cincy in Pinstripe, rewarding the future of the conference.
If SMU becomes bowl eligible (need to go 2-1), they will go to the Beef O' Brady's Bowl in St. Petersburg.
Before the season MotleySports projected Louisville to run the table in the AAC and finish 11-1, claiming the league's final BCS title. With UCF, Cincinnati, and Rutgers all in contention as well. Three of those four teams find themselves in the mix with a fourth team in contention as recently as this weekend.
After consecutive losses to UCF and Louisville, Houston's long shot BCS hopes are pretty much done. The Cougars are currently 7-3 (4-2 AAC) and finish the season with Cincy and SMU.
Cincy, UCF, and Louisville are all still in contention for the BCS bowl bid. UCF, after beating Louisville on October 17th, are in the driver's seat. UCF is 8-1, and unbeaten in conference play with games vs. Rutgers (this Thursday), USF, and @ SMU remaining. Should the Knights win all three, they will go to the school's first ever BCS bowl game.
Should they lose however, would complicate things a bit. Cincinnati hosts Louisville on December 5. That game is essentially an elimination game. The Bearcats lost to USF back in October, a game they are really regretting losing right about now. Louisville basically needs two UCF losses to have a chance given their head-to-head loss. They also could have used a Cincy win over USF because a three-way tiebreaker might have benefited the Cardinals.
Cincinnati does not play UCF head to head. So a UCF loss and Cincy winning out would mean using BCS rankings as a tie-breaker. Cincy does play two winning teams in Houston and Louisville while a UCF loss to Rutgers, USF, or SMU wouldn't be very good to their overall resume. UCF is currently 19th in the BCS and Cincinnati is 29th. So there is a chance the Bearcats can pass them, however slightly.
After these three teams, Houston and SMU each have two conference losses. The Mustangs are 4-5 overall and play Uconn, Houston, and UCF to end the season. So a bowl game is still up in the air. Rutgers is 5-4 and play UCF this week before ending with Uconn and South Florida, both of whom are disappointing.
The bottom of the conference is very weak, with USF 2-7 (no idea how they beat Cincinnati). Memphis 3-6 (1-4 AAC), and Uconn and Temple are both winless in conference play, while Temple does have one win against Army. Temple and Uconn play each other this Saturday in what should be an epic American Athletic football showdown.
The Bowl Picture
Assuming UCF doesn't falter at the end of the season they will likely go to the Sugar Bowl. The Orange Bowl has "first pick" among at-large teams and will have their choice between Wisconsin, Michigan State, Stanford to play ACC representative Clemson. With Fresno State currently slated for the Fiesta Bowl, that means UCF will likely face one of Auburn, Missouri, or Texas A&M in the Sugar Bowl. If Fresno State were to lose a game, however, it's likely UCF would play in the Fiesta Bowl.
Louisville, who many still believe is the conference's best team, will most likely play in the Russell Athletic bowl against an ACC team, and future conference foe.
Belk Bowl will have a decision to make. It's questionable whether or not they would want Cincinnati to come back. Cincy beat Duke last year 48-34 in what turned out to be one of the most exciting games of the bowl season. But bowls often don't like repeating teams in consecutive years with the thinking that fans won't travel to the same game again. That leaves Rutgers and Houston as options. If Houston goes 1-1 to end the season with a loss to Cincy and win over SMU, expect Belk to take Houston to face an ACC team.
That leaves Cincinnati going to the Pinstripe Bowl, sponsored by the Yankees. The likely opponent for this game is Notre Dame, who get an at-large bowl bid. The Big 12 has the tie-in for this game and officially as of Saturday will not fill all of their bowl slots. So Pinstripe can pick between a list of teams, and you know if they get their way they will pick Notre Dame, who is undoubtedly a major draw anywhere. Plus, they would love to have Cincy as the opponent. The Irish are coached by Brian Kelly, who was incredibly successful in three years at Cincy, guiding them to two BCS games. The storylines write themselves for this game and would be a no-brainer.
Rutgers, who could be 7-5 or worse, would slide to the BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham. It's also possible the conference, who has some say in bowl slotting, will make sure Rutgers goes to this game almost as a punishment for leaving the conference. Why reward them with a game in their own backyard (Bronx) against a team like Notre Dame. It's likely the commissioner Mike Aresco uses his authority to place Houston in Belk and Cincy in Pinstripe, rewarding the future of the conference.
If SMU becomes bowl eligible (need to go 2-1), they will go to the Beef O' Brady's Bowl in St. Petersburg.
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